Market Overview for Holo/Tether (HOTUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price declined by 3.15% in 24 hours, closing at 0.000889 from an open of 0.00092
• Momentum weakened, as RSI dipped below 50, suggesting bearish bias
• Volatility expanded early but contracted late, with price near lower Bollinger Band
• Turnover spiked during 17:00–18:00 ET, coinciding with the first leg of the breakdown
• A key support at 0.000890 was tested multiple times, but failed to hold in the final hours

Holo/Tether (HOTUSDT) opened at 0.00092 at 12:00 ET−1, reaching a high of 0.000932 and a low of 0.000875 before closing at 0.000889 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 505,446,674.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $447,073 (calculated using closing prices). Price action reflected a bearish continuation, with a breakdown below key support levels.

The structure of the 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish engulfing patterns starting around 17:00 ET. A significant low at 0.000875 formed just before 15:30 ET, and price remained below the 0.000900 level for the majority of the day. Resistance levels at 0.000909, 0.000920, and 0.000925 were clearly defined and tested multiple times. A notable doji at 0.000921 at 23:45 ET signaled indecision near resistance, followed by a sharp breakdown.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, with the 20-period line below the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages aligned in a descending formation, reinforcing the bearish trend. MACD turned negative and remained in the oversold zone, while RSI dropped below 50 and into the 30–40 range, indicating potential for further downward momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a period of expansion in the morning before contracting in the evening, with price hovering near the lower band during the final hours.

Volume and turnover data showed strong bearish confirmation during the price breakdown in the afternoon. The highest volume spike occurred at 17:00 ET with 34,940,994 HOT traded, coinciding with a high of 0.000935 and a close of 0.000924. A divergence between price and turnover was observed during the 02:00–03:00 ET timeframe, where price continued to fall but turnover declined, suggesting potential exhaustion. Fibonacci retracement levels for the 0.000920–0.000875 move showed key levels at 0.000901 (61.8%) and 0.000893 (38.2%), both of which were briefly retested but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis: The proposed strategy is to enter short positions when price breaks below a 15-minute 20-period moving average and closes below a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance, and a take-profit target is set at the next Fibonacci level or key support. This aligns with the observed breakdown and confirmation of bearish momentum seen on the 15-minute chart. Initial signals were generated at 17:00 ET and 02:45 ET, both showing strong alignment with the price structure and volume patterns.