Market Overview for Hive/Bitcoin (HIVEBTC) — 2025-10-11

• Price declined 0.04% to 1.27e-06, with a 24-hour low at 6e-07.
• Volatility spiked midday with a 61.8% Fibonacci level break.
• Volume surged to 238k at 21:30 ET but failed to confirm a reversal.
• RSI showed oversold conditions twice, without follow-through buying.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before a sharp sell-off, hinting at possible continuation.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-11, Hive/Bitcoin opened at 1.48e-06, reached a high of 1.5e-06, and closed at 1.27e-06 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 6e-07. Total traded volume amounted to 1,057,213.0 HIVEBTC, with notional turnover reflecting the price drop and uneven order flow.

Structure & Formations revealed multiple key levels. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 21:30 ET, followed by a deep bear trap as price fell below 1.45e-06. The 24-hour low at 6e-06 may mark a fresh support level. Doji formed between 03:15–03:45 ET and again at 03:45–04:00 ET, signaling indecision after the sell-off.

Moving Averages were not explicitly calculated due to limited data, but price action crossed below key psychological levels during the 21:30–22:15 ET window, aligning with bearish momentum. The 50-period and 20-period SMAs would likely show bearish crossovers during this phase.

MACD turned negative after 21:30 ET and remained bearish through the session, while RSI dipped into oversold territory twice—once at 21:45 ET and again at 07:45 ET. Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable contraction at 20:00–20:45 ET before a sharp 35% expansion. Price spent most of the session below the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.

Volume spiked at 21:30 ET with 238,343.0 HIVEBTC traded and again at 23:15 ET (131,043.0 HIVEBTC). The 21:30 spike failed to hold, indicating a false bottom. Turnover was uneven, with periods of zero activity contrasting against high-volume selloffs.

Fibonacci Retracements showed a critical 61.8% level at ~1.46e-06, which was broken decisively. The 38.2% retracement at ~1.49e-06 failed to hold, confirming bearish bias. Intra-day retracement levels suggest possible resistance between 1.27e-06 and 1.29e-06 in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis: The described strategy targets bearish engulfing patterns followed by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement break. This would suggest an aggressive short entry with a tight stop just above the high of the engulfing candle. Given today’s data, a trade at 21:30 ET would have had a 40% risk-reward ratio if targeting 6e-07 as a stop loss and 1.25e-06 as a profit target. The pattern and volume profile are strong enough to justify a high-probability short trade in this scenario.

Over the next 24 hours, Hive/Bitcoin may test the 1.25e-06 level, with potential consolidation if the 1.27e-06–1.29e-06 range holds. A break below 1.25e-06 could accelerate the downtrend, while a rebound above 1.29e-06 may signal short-term relief. As always, volatility remains a key risk to watch, particularly as volume and turnover diverge from price.