Market Overview for Hive/Bitcoin (HIVEBTC) - 2025-09-22

• • •

• Price consolidates near 1.71e-6, with limited volatility observed in late-day selling.
• Volume remains muted for most of the session, with a sharp sell-off in the early morning.
• A potential bearish reversal pattern formed around 06:15 ET, confirming downward momentum.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a bounce, but lacks bullish confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands show a narrow contraction early in the session, followed by a sharp price drop below the lower band.

Hive/Bitcoin (HIVEBTC) opened at 1.71e-6 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.72e-6 and a low of 1.62e-6 before closing at 1.63e-6 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 129,176.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 226.42 (based on average price).

The price action revealed a bearish bias, particularly in the early morning hours, with a sharp drop of 5.8% at 06:15 ET after a large sell-off of 50,139.0 volume. The candlestick during this period had a long lower wick and a bearish close, signaling a potential reversal pattern. This move pushed the price to its daily low and below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating elevated volatility at that point.

The RSI hit oversold territory during this drop but remained flat, failing to confirm a potential rebound. Meanwhile, the MACD moved into negative territory and showed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearishly aligned, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average acted as a key resistance level, which the price failed to overcome.

Bollinger Bands initially showed a narrow contraction, indicating low volatility before the sharp break. Price spent much of the session within the bands, but the late-night sell-off saw it briefly drop below the lower band, suggesting heightened volatility and bearish momentum. Key support levels formed near 1.63e-6 and 1.62e-6, while resistance remains at 1.65e-6. A Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the recent high to low is aligned with 1.64e-6, a key psychological level to watch.

The RSI and MACD both suggest that the bearish momentum is likely to persist for the next 24 hours, barring a strong rebound that could see a test of the 1.65e-6 resistance. Investors should remain cautious, particularly if volume fails to confirm a potential reversal. A break below 1.62e-6 could signal a deeper correction, but the oversold RSI may hint at a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed bearish reversal pattern and the RSI entering oversold territory without confirmation of a reversal, a potential backtesting strategy could be to short the pair if the price closes below 1.63e-6 and remains below the 20-period moving average for the next two 15-minute candles. A stop-loss should be placed above the 1.65e-6 resistance level to protect against a rebound. The target for this short would be 1.60e-6, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5 based on Fibonacci levels. This hypothesis relies on the continuation of current bearish sentiment and confirmation of price divergence with momentum indicators.