Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) – October 7, 2025

• HEMI/Turkish Lira traded in a tight range until a late surge pushed price up 5.6% in the last 6 hours.
• Momentum strengthened in the final 12 hours, with RSI reaching 59 and MACD turning positive.
• Volatility expanded late into the session, as Bollinger Bands widened and volume surged past $4.4M.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 3.92-3.96, suggesting short-term buying interest.
• Downturn after 12:00 ET saw price test prior support at 3.84–3.87, with mixed follow-through.

Price Action and Context

HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 3.92 on October 6, 12:00 ET, and traded down to a low of 3.84 before a strong late rally pushed the 24-hour close to 3.94. The pair saw a high of 4.06 and a low of 3.65, with total volume of 51,607,648.3 and turnover of $188.1M. The price action suggests a potential shift from consolidation to breakout trading, as late surges in both price and volume suggest emerging conviction.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 3.84–3.87, which held during the morning downturn but failed to sustain buying pressure during the later drop. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 3.92–3.96 in the late afternoon, hinting at short-term bullish momentum. A long lower shadow at 3.95–4.06 suggested rejection of higher levels after a strong bid. The daily low at 3.65 could act as a critical support zone for the next few days if the current bearish move continues.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period MA at 3.93 and the 50-period MA at 3.91, with price currently above both. The daily MA (50) is at 3.89, and the 200-day MA at 3.85, indicating a potential bullish bias over the short to medium term. The MACD turned positive in the last 6 hours, aligning with the upward move, while RSI rose to 59, suggesting strengthening momentum but not yet overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 22:00 ET, as the Bollinger Bands widened from a contraction at 3.91–3.93 to a range of 3.65–4.06. Price spent the last 12 hours trading above the upper band, indicating a breakout scenario. A pullback to the middle band at ~3.86 could confirm the strength of the move, or a rejection here could signal a consolidation phase.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to $4.4M at 22:45 ET when price hit 4.04, showing strong conviction behind the breakout. Turnover increased in line with volume, with no significant divergences observed. However, the late afternoon sell-off saw lower volume compared to the rally, suggesting weaker bearish conviction during the dip. The final 6 hours saw the majority of turnover, indicating recent accumulation by short-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 3.84–4.06 swing sits at 3.94, which is where price has found initial resistance. If the move continues, the 78.6% retracement at 3.98 could act as a new target for short-term bulls. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the 3.65–4.06 range is at 3.89, which has acted as a support and potential pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying bullish engulfing patterns forming on strong volume and entering longs at the close of the engulfing candle with a stop just below the pattern’s low. A target of 78.6% Fibonacci (3.98) or the upper Bollinger Band could be used for exits. Given the recent volume and momentum indicators, this setup may have offered a high probability of success in the past 24 hours, though confirmation would require testing on historical data outside the provided window.