Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY)

• HEMI/TRY traded in a tight range near 1.74–1.78 TRY, closing near the session low.
• Volume was uneven, with higher turnover in late ET hours.
• MACD showed weak momentum, and RSI remained neutral.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session, hinting at consolidation.
• Price failed to break above 1.77, a prior resistance level.

24-Hour Price Summary

HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 1.76 TRY at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 1.72 and 1.78 TRY over the next 24 hours, closing at 1.71 TRY by 12:00 ET. Total volume was 7,094,455.0 TRY, and notional turnover (amount traded) reached 87.0 HEMI. The pair has shown a bearish bias with no significant breakout above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several bearish structures throughout the day, including a small bearish engulfing pattern in the early hours of ET and a doji near 1.73 TRY, signaling indecision. The most recent low at 1.71 TRY could act as a temporary support level, though a break below that may open the door to further downside.

Engulfing and Doji Patterns

The engulfing pattern that formed as price moved from 1.76 to 1.74 TRY suggested a short-term bearish reversal. A doji near 1.73 TRY added to the narrative, suggesting traders are hesitant to push the price lower. These patterns may indicate a potential consolidation phase ahead if support holds.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Immediate resistance is located near 1.74 TRY, followed by 1.75 TRY and 1.76 TRY. Support is currently at 1.71 TRY, with a potential next level at 1.70 TRY. A sustained break below 1.71 TRY could trigger a more aggressive bearish move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned around 1.74 TRY, with price hovering slightly below. Daily moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-day lines, remain higher, reinforcing the bearish bias on a longer time horizon.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line mid-session, suggesting a weakening bullish momentum. RSI settled near 49, indicating a neutral to slightly oversold condition, but not extreme enough to suggest a reversal. Price has not shown convincing follow-through above the 1.75 TRY level, keeping the bias to the downside for now.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between 21:00 and 23:00 ET, suggesting a potential breakout phase. Price settled near the lower band at the end of the session, which may indicate lingering bearish pressure. A sustained move above the upper band would be a strong bullish signal, but the likelihood remains low without a catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 21:00–23:00 ET timeframe, reaching a peak of 608,771.2 TRY, but was not accompanied by a significant price move. This divergence suggests that while activity increased, it lacked directional conviction. Notional turnover (amount traded) rose slightly, but the total volume remains moderate compared to recent averages.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from the recent 1.76–1.72 swing fall near 1.74 and 1.73 TRY, respectively. These levels have acted as support and resistance multiple times and may be watched closely in the coming 24 hours.

Short-Term Fibonacci Levels

The 1.73 TRY level coincides with both a Fibonacci retracement level and a recent doji, increasing its importance as a potential pivot point. A failure to hold here could see price head toward the 1.70 TRY level, where further Fibonacci support is also located.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current RSI readings and the bearish momentum signals from the MACD, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short-term oversold entry signals. This would involve entering a long position when RSI drops below 30 and holding it for 72 hours, with exits on a close below the entry price. However, due to the ambiguity of the ticker symbol, the strategy remains unverified. Once the correct ticker is confirmed, RSI data and historical price series can be used to test this hypothesis from 2022 to the present.