Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY)

• Price rallied to 3.04 before retreating to 2.86, showing intraday volatility.
• Strong volume surges near 10:30 PM ET indicate key price inflections.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions in the late evening and oversold at market open.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the early hours, signaling high uncertainty.
• HEMI/Turkish Lira ended lower by 2.8% in 24 hours amid mixed momentum.

HEMI/Turkish Lira opened at 2.91 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET-1, peaked at 3.04, and closed at 2.86 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. Total 24-hour volume reached approximately 20.1 million Turkish Lira, with a turnover of roughly 55.4 million Turkish Lira, indicating moderate to high liquidity.

The 15-minute chart reveals a volatile 24-hour session marked by sharp corrections and brief rebounds. A strong rally emerged during the early hours of the morning, peaking at 3.04 before reversing sharply. Key resistance levels were identified around 3.04 and 2.96, with the price failing to maintain gains above these levels. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 8:45 AM ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. The 2.91–2.92 range acted as a strong support zone, halting the decline temporarily. A doji at 1:45 AM ET signaled indecision and may precede a reversal.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages intersected multiple times during the session, indicating a choppy trend. Price crossed above the 20-period moving average in the early morning but failed to hold above the 50-period line, suggesting a lack of sustained momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart appears bearish, hovering above the current price and acting as a psychological resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was briefly pierced to the upside but did not confirm a new bullish phase.

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the morning, aligning with the sharp sell-off. The RSI oscillated between overbought (3.04 peak at RSI 69) and oversold levels (2.86 at RSI 33), reflecting divergent momentum. Bollinger Bands widened in the early hours, reflecting high volatility, but then contracted into a narrow consolidation phase during the late morning, suggesting an impending breakout or breakdown. Price hovered near the lower band in the afternoon, indicating a potential oversold condition.

Volume spiked at key inflection points—particularly around 10:30 PM ET and 12:00 AM ET—supporting the validity of price swings. Notional turnover also surged during these intervals, reinforcing the conviction in price direction. A divergence between rising price and falling volume in the early morning raised concerns about sustainability. The most significant volume spike occurred around 10:30 PM ET, coinciding with a 3.02–3.04 breakout attempt.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 2.86–3.04 swing show 2.93 at 38.2% and 2.90 at 61.8%, both of which acted as pivot points during the correction phase. The 2.93 retracement level was a key support zone that halted the morning sell-off, while 2.90 saw renewed bearish pressure. Daily Fibonacci levels applied to the broader move from 2.86 to 3.04 suggest 2.93 and 2.97 as potential turning points for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed RSI overbought levels and key Fibonacci retracement levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 (oversold), with a stop-loss at 5% below the entry price, and exiting at the next-day open. A 20-period moving average could be used to confirm trend direction before entry. This strategy would align with the recent price behavior, particularly around 10:30 PM ET when volume spiked and RSI dropped from overbought to neutral. Testing this approach from 2022-01-01 to today using the HEMITRY ticker could validate its viability under similar conditions.