Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY)

• HEMI/Turkish Lira opened at 3.84 and reached a high of 4.12 before closing at 3.82, showing a volatile 24-hour range.
• Price tested key resistance levels at 4.12 and 3.96, followed by a pullback toward support near 3.77.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the 4.12 peak and oversold conditions during the 3.77 low.
• Volume spiked during the early morning rally and dropped during consolidation phases.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the midday surge, reflecting increased volatility.

HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 3.84 at 12:00 ET on October 5 and reached an intraday high of 4.12 before closing at 3.82 at 12:00 ET on October 6. The 24-hour trading session saw total trading volume of 56,131,276.75 and notional turnover of approximately 209,906,442.04. Price action exhibited a strong morning rally, followed by a consolidation phase and a gradual decline in the afternoon, ending with bearish momentum.

Key support levels were identified near 3.77, where price found a floor after midday, while resistance levels at 3.96 and 4.12 were repeatedly tested. Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing candle at 3.82–3.92 and a bearish harami near the 4.11–3.98 range. A doji formed at the 4.06–4.07 level, indicating indecision and potential reversal. The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained above the price most of the session, suggesting a temporary bearish bias.

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover after the 4.12 high, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI briefly peaked near 70 during the rally, then dropped into oversold territory at 30 during the pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning session, with price closing near the lower band at 3.82. This suggests reduced volatility and potential for a rebound. Volume spiked during the early rally and again during the 3.82 close, showing participation on both sides of the market.

Volume and turnover diverged at key turning points—volume increased during the 4.12 peak but declined during the consolidation phase, while turnover remained consistent. Fibonacci retracements showed the 3.82–3.98 swing retraced to 38.2% at 3.87 and 61.8% at 3.82, suggesting a possible near-term floor. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA held slightly above the 100-period SMA, indicating a neutral bias but with bearish pressure emerging.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy focusing on 15-minute candlestick patterns and RSI levels could be applied to this pair, particularly targeting overbought/oversold conditions and key Fibonacci retracements. A hypothetical buy signal would be triggered on a bullish engulfing pattern with RSI below 30, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest support. Sell signals could be generated during bearish harami patterns with RSI above 70. Given the high volatility and volume spikes observed, this strategy may need to incorporate trailing stops and daily volume filters to mitigate false signals.