Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) on 2025-11-07

• Price closed higher on strong momentum, forming bullish engulfing and piercing patterns late in the day.
• Volume surged after 20:00 ET, confirming a breakout above key resistance at 1.42.
• RSI showed overbought levels by 06:00 ET, suggesting a potential pullback in the short term.

The HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) pair opened at 1.38 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.45 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour session ended at 1.41 after a volatile climb and consolidation. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 7,609,700.3, with a notional turnover of approximately 10,660 Turkish Lira.

The price formed several key structures, including a bullish engulfing pattern late in the session (around 07:30–07:45 ET) and a piercing pattern following a sharp correction from 1.44 to 1.41. These formations suggest a potential shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed over positively, reinforcing the short-term bullish case.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 1.38 and 1.40, with the latter showing repeated rejection before a breakout. Resistance was tested at 1.42 and 1.44, with the 1.42 level successfully broken after a consolidation phase. A bearish doji appeared around 02:00 ET, indicating indecision before a renewed rally.

Moving Averages

The 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a short-term bullish bias. Meanwhile, the 50-period and 100-period daily MAs remained in a slight bearish alignment, suggesting that while the short-term is positive, longer-term buyers have yet to fully re-enter.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a positive divergence during the 23:00–01:00 ET window, aligning with the price recovery. RSI reached overbought territory (75+) by 06:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term pullback or consolidation before further upside.

Bollinger Bands

Price activity remained within the Bollinger Bands for much of the session, with a notable contraction at 05:00 ET followed by a strong expansion. The price closed just above the upper band at 08:00–08:45 ET, indicating heightened volatility and a possible continuation of the bullish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 20:00 ET and peaked at 08:00 ET, confirming the breakout above 1.42 and 1.43. Turnover also increased during these hours, showing aligned price and volume action. A divergence between price and volume was observed around 03:00–04:00 ET, which may signal a potential false break.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels during the 03:00–05:00 ET window. A key 61.8% retracement level at 1.42 acted as both a support and a pivot, leading to a significant price rebound and breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on detecting Bearish Engulfing patterns in HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) candlestick data since 2022 and generating short-term sell signals. These signals would be held for one trading day. A similar analysis could be extended to bullish patterns to capture potential long positions. The performance would depend on entry and exit timing, as well as stop-loss placement.