Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) on 2025-10-09

• HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) dropped 19.8% over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour low.
• Key support tested at 3.70, with bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded early, but recent price action shows consolidation below 4.15.
• Bollinger Bands indicate reduced volatility, with price near the lower band.
• Volume surged during the rally to 4.62 but faded during the downward move, suggesting weak follow-through.

Opening at 4.16 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET, HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) reached a high of 4.75 before closing at 3.70 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The 24-hour low came in at 3.53, with total traded volume hitting 79,292,797.4 and total turnover at 317,655,963.0 Turkish Lira. The sharp correction from the 4.62 level appears to have established a new bearish structure.

Key support levels are forming at 3.70 and 3.58, with resistance lingering near 4.15 and 4.36. A long upper shadow and bearish engulfing pattern were visible during the collapse from 4.62 to 3.58, suggesting strong selling pressure. A doji at 3.60 implies a potential pause in the downward move, but a break below 3.58 could extend the correction. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is currently bearish, with price well below it.

MACD has flattened near zero, showing weakening momentum, while RSI is in oversold territory at 28, indicating potential near-term exhaustion of the decline. Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, consistent with the oversold condition. However, without a reversal candle or significant buying volume, price may continue to consolidate or test lower supports. A bearish breakout from the 3.58 level could trigger deeper declines toward 3.53, while a bounce above 3.70 may offer a short-term reprieve.

The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the 3.53 to 4.75 swing is at 3.75, a critical level to watch for potential bounces or breakdowns. Volume has been thin during the recent consolidation, suggesting a lack of conviction from either side. If price fails to close above 3.70 within the next 24 hours, bearish continuation is likely, with downside risks remaining elevated. Investors should monitor for volume expansion and candlestick confirmation at key levels.

The backtesting strategy described emphasizes identifying divergences between price and RSI during bearish corrections, particularly when volume is declining. Applying this to the current scenario, the recent divergence (falling price with rising RSI) is a potential early signal of exhaustion, but the weak volume and bearish engulfing pattern suggest caution. A reversal could emerge if RSI crosses above 30 with strong volume, but this scenario remains uncertain.