Market Overview: HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) on 2025-10-03

• HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at $3.8 and closed 24 hours later at $3.7, showing a bearish reversal.
• Price dropped to a low of $3.63 early in the morning, with a 6.5% drawdown from the intraday high.
• A sharp volume spike was observed during the downturn, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce, though bullish confirmation is lacking.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction at 04:00 ET before a sharp expansion during the sell-off.

Market Opening and Closing

At 12:00 ET on October 2, HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at $3.8 and traded as high as $3.91 before falling sharply to a 24-hour low of $3.63. The pair closed at $3.70 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 24,363,589.1 units, with notional turnover reaching $83,110.70.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern formed over the 24-hour period shows a clear bearish trend, with a significant decline after a failed breakout attempt above $3.85. Key support levels are evident at $3.70 and $3.63, with the latter showing consolidation after the sharp drop. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $3.85–$3.78, followed by a long lower wick as the price tested support levels. A doji formed at $3.72–$3.72 around 03:45 ET, indicating indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

Short-term 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a steep decline, with price staying below both. This suggests a strong bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are converging, with price currently sitting below the 50-day line. This configuration points to continued pressure for HEMITRY to find support at lower levels.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and the histogram is narrowing, which may indicate a slowdown in the downward momentum, although it remains bearish. RSI dropped to 29, entering oversold territory, but no bullish reversal has been confirmed. This suggests the market may pause or consolidate before any meaningful move higher.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction at around 04:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price moved toward the lower band. The price closed near the lower band, indicating strong bearish pressure. This setup may suggest a potential bounce, but without a clear reversal pattern or volume confirmation, a breakout above the middle band remains unlikely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

The volume and notional turnover surged during the 02:30–04:00 ET window as the price declined to $3.63. This divergence between falling price and rising volume supports the bearish thesis. However, a recent volume contraction from $3.70 to $3.73 suggests waning short-term momentum, which could lead to a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the high at $3.91 to the low at $3.63 show key retracement levels at $3.80 (38.2%) and $3.74 (61.8%). Price briefly tested the 38.2% level at $3.80 but failed to hold. If the price bounces from the 61.8% level at $3.74, it could signal a short-term reversal. However, a break below $3.63 would target the next Fibonacci level at $3.56.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when HEMITRY breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%) confirmed by bearish candlestick patterns and a RSI above 50. Exit the trade when price closes above the 38.2% retracement level or when RSI rises above 60, signaling overbought conditions. This setup aligns with the bearish momentum seen in the 24-hour data, with MACD and volume confirming the trend.