Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) — 2025-09-26

• Price declined 15.17% over 24 hours, closing at 4.92, with a key support forming near 4.75–4.92.
• Volume spiked sharply after 20:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum despite short-term bounces.
• RSI and MACD both indicate oversold conditions, with potential for a near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility and a closing candle near the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a possible target around 5.15 for a short-term recovery.

The HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) pair opened at 5.70 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, reached a high of 5.89, and closed at 4.92 as of 2025-09-26 12:00 ET. The 24-hour total volume was approximately 105.2 million, with notional turnover calculated at roughly 513.3 million Turkish Lira.

Price action over the 24-hour period formed a bearish continuation pattern, including a large bearish engulfing candle at the top of the move on 2025-09-25 22:30 and a long lower wick at 2025-09-26 02:15. A notable doji formed at 2025-09-26 03:45, suggesting temporary indecision. Key support levels appear to be forming in the 4.75–4.92 range, while resistance is likely near 5.15 and 5.35.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key price levels, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period daily MA currently sits at 5.33, and the 200-period MA at 5.16—indicating a strong bearish trend. MACD crossed below the signal line, and RSI dropped into oversold territory near 30, suggesting a potential rebound. Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the major drop, with the last close sitting near the lower band—consistent with high volatility and exhaustion of selling pressure.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key 4.74 to 5.67 swing on 2025-09-26 show the price closing near the 61.8% retracement level (5.15) on the 15-minute chart, and the 61.8% level on the daily chart at 5.29. A move above 5.15 could signal a short-term reversal, while a breakdown below 4.75 would indicate further downside risk. Volume confirmed the bearish move post 20:30 ET, with divergences observed between price and turnover on the last few 15-minute candles suggesting a possible near-term pause.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when RSI drops below 30 and the 50-period moving average crosses below the 20-period line on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a take-profit target near the 50% retracement level. The recent action aligns with this hypothesis, particularly from 22:30 to 01:00 ET, showing potential for a 4.75–5.15 range as a short-term trading opportunity.