Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira on 2025-10-22

• HEMI/Turkish Lira dropped ~8% over the past 24 hours, closing near session lows amid a strong bearish trend.
• Volume spiked during the early session, indicating aggressive selling pressure before a consolidation phase overnight.
• RSI and MACD both show bearish momentum, with price trading near 15-min Bollinger Band lows, suggesting oversold territory.
• A key support appears forming around 2.32–2.34, with resistance clustering at 2.48–2.50 after a failed attempt to break above 2.50.
• Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential bounce points near 2.37 (38.2%) and 2.42 (50%), with a 61.8% level near 2.47 as a key psychological threshold.

The HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) pair opened at 2.59 on October 21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.64, a low of 2.26, and closed at 2.34 as of 12:00 ET on October 22. Over the 24-hour window, total volume amounted to approximately 19,918,353.8 units, with a notional turnover of ~51,469,812.9 Turkish Lira. Price action reflects a sharp bearish trend from mid-session to overnight lows, followed by a tentative recovery in early morning trading.

On the 15-minute chart, the asset has been trading below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term downtrend. A notable Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged around 17:00–17:30 ET, signaling a continuation of the bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at ~2.43, while the 20-period MA is near 2.41, both above the current price, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD shows a bearish crossover with both lines trending downward, and RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, this may not necessarily trigger a bounce, as momentum remains negative and the 15-minute candlesticks show weak follow-through buying. Bollinger Bands have recently contracted following an expansion, with price now hovering near the lower band, hinting at potential short-term volatility. The 15-minute 2.34 level appears to be a critical support zone.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 2.26–2.64 swing suggest key psychological thresholds at 2.37 (38.2%), 2.42 (50%), and 2.47 (61.8%). A break below 2.32 could bring in deeper stops or trigger further bearish momentum. Volume remains elevated in the 17:00–19:00 ET timeframe, confirming the strength of the move lower. However, recent volume has normalized, and price has started to consolidate, indicating a potential pause in the downtrend.

The Bearish Engulfing pattern around 17:00 ET aligns with the backtesting strategy described. A short entry at the next day’s open after a confirmed Bearish Engulfing signal (e.g., at ~2.57–2.58) would have been triggered. Given the pair’s current position near 2.34, a backtest based on this strategy would need to factor in exit rules such as a 5-day holding period, a 10% take-profit (2.31–2.32), and an 8% stop-loss (2.65–2.67). The strategy's effectiveness will depend on the frequency of valid Bearish Engulfing setups and the likelihood of the asset maintaining its bearish momentum over the following days. These parameters appear testable with the provided OHLCV data.