Market Overview: Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – October 9, 2025 (12:00 ET)

• HBARUSDT opened at $0.21744, reached a high of $0.22235, and closed at $0.21112 after a 24-hour decline of ~4.6%.
• Price action shows a bearish reversal after a late-night rally, with a key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern forming near $0.222.
• Momentum has shifted decisively lower, with RSI entering oversold territory and volume spiking during the selloff.
• Volatility expanded sharply in the early hours of October 9, with Bollinger Bands widening as HBARUSDT broke below key support at $0.215.
• Fibonacci retracements from the recent $0.22235 high suggest potential near-term support at 0.618 ($0.216) and 0.786 ($0.2125).

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.21744 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.22235 before declining to close at $0.21112 at the same time on October 9. The pair fell into a sustained bear phase in the early hours of October 9, with total volume across the 24-hour period reaching approximately 60.6 million HBAR, and total turnover amounting to $13.2 million. Price action reveals a sharp, high-volume correction following a short-lived bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish engulfing pattern around $0.22235 during the early morning (04:00–04:15 ET) before a sustained decline. A 15-minute doji formed around $0.21903 (10:30 PM–10:45 PM ET) indicating indecision. Key support levels to watch include $0.214 (initial stop for shorters) and $0.2118 (recent swing low). Resistance near $0.2170 and $0.2193 could trigger countertrend volatility on a rebound. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.216 and the 0.786 at $0.2125 remain critical for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in a bearish death cross pattern after 11:00 PM ET, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA sits near $0.2195, with the 200-day MA at $0.2150 acting as a potential pivot point. A break below the 200-day MA could trigger longer-term bearish pressure and reclassify the move as a structural decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly into negative territory during the early hours of October 9, with the histogram expanding during the selloff, indicating strong momentum. RSI has plunged into oversold territory (below 30), but without a clear rebound, this suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. Divergences between price and RSI have not yet formed, meaning momentum remains aligned with direction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with the 20-period lower band touching $0.2115. Price has spent the final 48 hours near the lower boundary, indicating low volatility and high bearish pressure. A reversal near the lower band could trigger a bounce, but only with volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 15-minute candle from 01:45–02:00 ET, with a massive 11.6 million HBAR traded as the pair gapped down to $0.21582. Turnover exceeded $2.5 million during this period. Price and volume remain in alignment, with no bear trap signs. A divergence would need a sharp rebound with above-average volume to be flagged.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the 15-minute swing high at $0.22235, the 0.382 retracement sits at $0.2186, the 0.618 at $0.216, and the 0.786 at $0.2125. A breakdown below $0.2125 would confirm a deeper bearish phase and open the door to $0.2090 as the next target. On the daily chart, key Fibonacci levels from the recent high at $0.22235 to the low at $0.21056 include 0.382 at $0.2177 and 0.618 at $0.2137.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern with a stop above the high of the formation and a target at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at $0.22235 aligns well with this setup. A trailing stop can be implemented as the pair moves toward the 0.786 level. This approach would have captured the sharp selloff seen in the early hours of October 9 and may serve as a viable short-term bearish strategy in similar volatile conditions. Performance would depend on volatility and volume confirmation, both of which were present in this case.