Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – November 13, 2025

Summary
• HBARUSDT opened at 0.17619 and closed at 0.17288, hitting a high of 0.17917 and a low of 0.17311.
• The 24-hour volume reached ~106.8M, with a turnover of ~$18.6M, showing moderate liquidity.
• Price action suggests a bearish reversal after breaking key support near 0.1760 and forming a hanging man pattern.
• RSI approached 30, hinting at oversold conditions, while MACD remained negative with bearish divergence.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.17619 on November 12 and closed at 0.17288 by 12:00 ET on November 13. The pair reached a high of 0.17917 and a low of 0.17311 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to approximately 106.8 million units, with notional turnover reaching $18.6 million.

Key support and resistance levels on the 15-minute chart include 0.1740 (strong support) and 0.1760 (key resistance). Notable candlestick patterns include a hanging man near 0.1754 on the 19:45 candle and a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.1744–0.1748 during the 09:15–09:30 timeframe. These patterns indicate a potential reversal from bullish to bearish momentum. The price also tested the 0.17311 level twice, failing to hold above it in the latter sessions.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below price, indicating bearish momentum. The 20-period MA sits near 0.1748 and the 50-period near 0.1753, suggesting continued pressure below these levels. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 0.1767, with the 200-day MA at 0.1745, forming a bearish “death cross” setup if the price fails to reclaim 0.1760.

MACD remains negative with a bearish crossover around 0.1760–0.1765 and has shown signs of bearish divergence as price bottomed while the indicator continued to trend lower. RSI has dropped to 30, indicating oversold conditions, but with limited upward momentum. Bollinger Bands show recent contraction between 0.1735–0.1755, followed by a break below the lower band, confirming increased volatility and bearish bias.

Price has stayed within the lower half of Bollinger Bands for most of the 24-hour period, with the 20-period standard deviation at ~0.0018, suggesting moderate volatility. Volume has been concentrated between 0.1730–0.1760, but recent price declines have occurred on increasing volume, adding bearish confirmation. Turnover spiked at 0.1772–0.1773 and again at 0.1740–0.1745, indicating order flow resistance.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the swing high of 0.17917 and low of 0.17311 show 61.8% at 0.1746 and 38.2% at 0.1769. Price has bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting a potential floor for the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI Overbought strategy, which involves buying when RSI-14 crosses above 70 and selling when it falls below 70, has shown encouraging historical performance on HBARUSDT. From January 1, 2022, to November 13, 2025, the strategy yielded a total return of approximately 498.7%, with an annualized return of ~42.2%. Maximum drawdown was ~30.6%, and the Sharpe ratio of ~0.86 indicates reasonable risk-adjusted returns. On average, winning trades returned ~10.1%, while losing trades averaged ~-6.0%. A 10% stop-loss was applied as a default to manage downside risk, aligning with prudent momentum-based systems. Given the recent bearish momentum and RSI at 30, the market appears to be in a potential oversold phase, which could be a key entry point for a reversal strategy.

Looking ahead, HBARUSDT may test the 0.17311–0.1740 range as a critical support cluster. A break below this level could extend the decline toward 0.1720–0.1710. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a potential bounce or further capitulation. As always, position sizing and stop-loss placement are essential given the high volatility and low liquidity in the lower price range.