Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT)

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.1945–$0.2050, with a 1.3% drop from open to close.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the day, with a sharp 5.7% decline from $0.2030 to $0.1930 before stabilizing.
• A bearish breakout below key 15-minute support at $0.1980 failed to sustain, and price recovered 38.2% of the swing low.
• MACD turned negative mid-day, and RSI approached oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term exhaustion in the selloff.
• Volume surged in the early hours, with a notable divergence between price lows and higher turnover, suggesting accumulation.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.2030 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1985 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29, after reaching a high of $0.2050 and a low of $0.1930. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 196,822,200, with turnover reaching approximately $39.8 million, indicating active participation and significant price movement.

Structure and key price levels show a bearish reversal in the early part of the session, with a sharp decline from $0.2030 to a low of $0.1930. The price action resembled a bearish engulfing pattern, especially on the 15-minute timeframe, as a large bearish candle consumed the previous bullish formation. A critical support level emerged around $0.1980, where price found buyers and began to retrace. This level coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier bearish move, suggesting psychological significance.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both fell below price during the sell-off, signaling short-term bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA currently sits above the 200-period MA, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the medium term, but the 100-period MA is catching up from below, which could indicate a potential flattening of the trend ahead.

text2img

The MACD on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover mid-morning, with the line dipping below the signal line and remaining negative, while RSI dipped into oversold territory around 30–35 for a short period, suggesting potential for a bounce. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sharp sell-off, with price hitting the lower band at $0.1930. This expansion indicates increased volatility. Notably, volume surged during the early hours, with price making lower lows but volume increasing—a potential sign of accumulation or stabilization. However, turnover and volume diverged slightly in the afternoon as price stabilized, with volume declining despite continued price movement.

The Fibonacci retracement levels of the major 24-hour move from $0.2050 to $0.1930 indicate that the current price of $0.1985 sits at the 38.2% retracement level, which is a key potential area for a bounce. The 50% level at $0.1990 and 61.8% at $0.2010 may also offer near-term resistance if buyers re-enter the market. On the 15-minute chart, a similar retracement of smaller intraday swings shows the 38.2% and 50% levels acting as minor support and resistance, which may influence short-term traders.

text2visual

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish engulfing pattern observed during the session aligns with the signal studied in the backtest, which showed a historical average next-day return of -0.40%, with no positive edge in outcomes or win rates. While the pattern appears bearish, the broader trend and market structure—particularly the 38.2% retracement and stabilizing Bollinger Bands—suggest the move may not hold for long. The bearish engulfing signal is present, but based on historical performance, investors should treat this pattern with caution and look for additional confirmation before entering a short position.