Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT): 24-Hour Technical Report

Summary
• Price declined from $0.1845 to $0.17905 over 24 hours on increased volume.
• RSI reached oversold levels, but failed to trigger a strong reversal.
• Volatility expanded as price breached key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened, suggesting higher uncertainty in price direction.
• Turnover surged in the late afternoon, highlighting intensified bearish momentum.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.1833 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.17905 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The price action saw a high of $0.1845 and a low of $0.1771, with total volume of 108,287,600 and total turnover of $19,050,000 over the 24-hour period. The bearish bias persisted throughout the session.

Over the last 24 hours, HBARUSDT exhibited a clear breakdown from key support levels near $0.1820 and $0.1810. A notable engulfing pattern emerged below $0.1800 at 21:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. A series of lower lows and lower highs reinforced the trend, and a doji candle appeared near $0.1795, suggesting a potential near-term pause in the sell-off. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA structure also shows a bearish alignment.

The MACD crossed below the signal line with declining histogram bars, suggesting that downward momentum remains intact. RSI has pushed into oversold territory, but no strong reversal has materialized thus far, which may indicate a continuation of the decline. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly from the morning session onward, reflecting increasing volatility and uncertainty. Price is currently resting near the 1.0 standard deviation level of the band, which could either signal a potential bounce or a breakdown below the band.

Volume has been steadily increasing, especially after 16:00 ET, when the price began to accelerate lower. Notional turnover spiked in the late afternoon and evening hours, aligning with the bearish price action. However, volume did not surge during the doji formation near $0.1795, which may suggest a lack of conviction in any potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent high near $0.1845 to the low of $0.1771 show HBARUSDT trading near the 61.8% retracement level at approximately $0.1792. This level is currently a potential support zone, and a break below it could target the next key level near $0.1760.

The asset appears to be in a high-probability continuation phase of the bearish trend. A retest of the $0.1792 Fibonacci level could offer a short-term bounce, but a breakdown below this level may lead to further downside. Investors should monitor for a reversal candle or a rejection at the 61.8% Fib to gauge the likelihood of a countertrend move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent bearish momentum on HBARUSDT has prompted an evaluation of an RSI-based mean-reversion strategy. The results of a three-year backtest (Jan 2022 – Nov 2025) using 15-minute OHLCV data revealed a total return of -24% and an annualised return of -2.2%, with a maximum drawdown of -52.5%. The average trade returned -0.11%, with winning trades averaging +3.5% and losing trades averaging -4.0%, highlighting an imbalance in trade performance. The Sharpe ratio of -0.10 indicates a lack of risk-adjusted returns, suggesting the strategy has not adequately compensated for the volatility.

Key findings suggest that RSI oversold signals alone have not been sufficient to capture mean-reversion opportunities in HBARUSDT. The high drawdown implies that price spikes can erode gains quickly, even with a one-day holding period. The low proportion of profitable trades further suggests that the asset's price behavior may be more influenced by momentum than by mean reversion.

To improve the strategy, extending the holding horizon to 3–5 days or incorporating dynamic exit rules such as RSI crossing back above 40 could be explored. Combining RSI with volume or trend filters—such as price action above or below key moving averages—may also help avoid entries during strong downtrends. Benchmarking against buy-and-hold or momentum-based strategies could provide further insights into the asset’s behavior under different market conditions.