Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT): 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum Analysis

• HBARUSDT declined from 0.2298 to 0.2229, closing near the session low with bearish momentum.
• RSI oversold conditions and volume confirmation signal potential for further downward pressure.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-session, suggesting heightened volatility and trend-following potential.
• A long-legged doji and engulfing patterns appeared, highlighting indecision and reversal potential.
• Turnover dipped in the final hours, suggesting reduced conviction in the current bearish move.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.22455 on October 3 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 0.22986 before closing at 0.22292 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair traded between 0.22238 and 0.22986, with a total traded volume of 93,663,612.0 HBAR and a notional turnover of $20,616,649.90 across 24 hours. The price action shows a strong bearish trend, especially in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

HBARUSDT formed a long-legged doji and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly in the early evening (19:00–20:15 ET), signaling exhaustion in the bullish wave and a shift in sentiment. Key support levels emerged at 0.2240–0.2235 and 0.2225–0.2220, with the 0.22238 level acting as a recent floor. Resistance levels around 0.2255–0.2260 were repeatedly tested but failed to hold. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior 15-minute bullish swing is near 0.2253–0.2255, which may now act as dynamic resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below the price, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period line has crossed below the 100-period and 200-period lines on the daily chart, reinforcing the bearish bias. This death cross formation suggests the downtrend is likely to persist unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 for several hours, especially after 22:00 ET, suggesting the pair is potentially overextended. However, the MACD remained bearish with a declining histogram, confirming the strength of the short-term bear trend. A potential bounce from oversold conditions could see a short-term recovery, but bearish continuation is more probable without a clear break above the 0.2255–0.2260 cluster.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted sharply around 19:30–20:00 ET before expanding again. The price spent much of the session below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting strong bearish pressure. A contraction and subsequent expansion may signal a continuation of the current trend, particularly if the price stays within or below the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early part of the session, especially between 17:00 and 19:00 ET, with a peak of over 9 million HBAR traded. This coincided with a strong price drop, indicating bearish conviction. In contrast, turnover declined sharply after 23:00 ET, suggesting reduced interest in the pair and potential consolidation ahead. A divergence between volume and price movement was observed in the final two hours of the session, where declining volume failed to support further downside, hinting at a possible near-term pause in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart show the 61.8% level at 0.2253–0.2255 as a key area of interest. The 38.2% level is at 0.2265–0.2270. The price appears to have stalled at these levels, which could now act as resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger bear wave lies near 0.2220–0.2225, where the price found a temporary floor, suggesting a possible short-term support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach that triggers short positions when HBARUSDT closes below the 50-period moving average and RSI dips below 30, with a stop-loss placed at the most recent swing high and a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent swing. Given the current conditions—RSI in oversold territory and price below the 50-period MA—the setup aligns with the strategy. A short bias is justified, though the declining volume in the final hours suggests caution in initiating new positions without a confirmed break below the 0.2225 level.