Market Overview: Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 24-Hour Breakdown and Bearish Momentum

Summary
• Price action shows a sharp breakdown below key support at $0.1230, forming bearish engulfing and bearish harami patterns.
• Volume surged during the breakdown phase, with a peak of 5.1M contracts at $0.12051, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD both show overbought divergence earlier, followed by bearish crossover and negative divergence in the final 5 hours.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-18:45 ET as volatility increased, with price closing near the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight a potential short-term target near $0.1198–0.1192 following a 78–89% retracement of the previous bullish wave.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.12694 on 2026-01-14 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.12736 and a low of $0.11857, and closed at $0.12063 at 12:00 ET on 2026-01-15. Total volume amounted to 154.48M contracts, with a notional turnover of $18.43M.

Structure and Candlestick Behavior

Price action was marked by a decisive breakdown from $0.1246–0.1250, where bearish engulfing patterns emerged around 18:45 ET and 22:30 ET. A bearish harami formed between 03:30–04:00 ET, signaling exhaustion in the prior rally. Key support levels at $0.1230 and $0.1215 were violated, with $0.12001–0.1198 proving to be a temporary floor before the final close.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 5-minute chart, price fell below both 20 and 50-period SMAs for most of the 24-hour window, reinforcing bearish bias. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA at 19:00 ET, indicating a short-term bearish crossover. RSI dipped to 28 in the final 2 hours, hinting at oversold conditions, though the MACD maintained a negative bias with a bearish crossover near 14:30 ET.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 18:45 ET onward as Bollinger Bands widened, with price falling near the lower band in the final hours. This suggests heightened selling pressure and potential for a short-term bounce. The contraction before 17:00 ET had signaled a period of consolidation that failed to hold.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume surged during the breakdown phase, peaking at 5.1M at $0.12051, with turnover surging to $1.84M during the same period. However, a divergence appeared in the last 2 hours, as price continued to fall but volume declined. This could hint at waning short-term momentum and a potential near-term pause in the decline.

Moving forward, a retest of $0.1200–0.1195 could trigger a short-covering bounce or a deeper test of $0.1180. Traders should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated, and a sustained rebound above $0.1225 could challenge the recent bearish trend.