Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price action saw a bearish reversal with a close near a key support level.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bottoming.
• Volatility declined in the final hours, with volume waning despite continued price consolidation.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.17203 on 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.17619 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The pair reached a high of $0.18127 and a low of $0.17113 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 93,278,609.0 and notional turnover hit $16,189,253. The price action suggests a bearish consolidation pattern with signs of potential near-term support.

Structure & Formations

The price has formed a descending pattern, with the 0.1765–0.1770 range acting as key support. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 20:30 ET, but failed to sustain above 0.1785. A doji formed near 23:45 ET, indicating indecision, and the final candle closed near support at 0.1760–0.1765. These formations suggest a potential bounce but reinforce bearish bias if support breaks.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, HBARUSDT sits just below the 20SMA at 0.1772 and the 50SMA at 0.1777, both in bearish alignment. The daily chart shows the 50DMA at 0.1795 and 200DMA at 0.1810—both above current price—confirming a longer-term downtrend. Price appears to be consolidating between the 50 and 20 SMA levels, with a possible retest of the 50SMA expected.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains bearish with the histogram declining into negative territory, while the RSI has dipped into oversold territory at ~25–28, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. The RSI divergence appears to be forming a bullish base after several oversold bounces, potentially setting up for a countertrend rally, though confirmation is needed above 0.1775.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been moderate, with Bollinger Bands contracting in the afternoon before expanding again. Price remains within the lower band on the 15-minute chart and near the lower band on the daily scale, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. A break above the 0.1780 level could signal a volatility expansion and retest of key resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the session during the breakout attempt at 18:30–20:00 ET, but declined sharply in the final 4–5 hours, with turnover dropping from $350k to $120k in the last 15-minute interval. This divergence between volume and price suggests weakening conviction among traders, potentially indicating a consolidation phase before the next directional move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show the 0.1765–0.1775 level aligning with the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous bearish leg. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is at 0.1755, and the 38.2% level is at 0.1775, with the current close near the key 61.8% retracement. This suggests a possible bounce or consolidation around these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Oversold → Overbought” swing-trading strategy applied to HBARUSDT from 1 Jan 2022 through 8 Nov 2025 shows a total return of +123.9% and an annualised return of 40.1%. However, the strategy is highly volatile, with a maximum drawdown of -80.3% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.53, indicating suboptimal risk-adjusted returns. The performance is driven by a few large winners, while the high volatility and drawdowns suggest the need for risk management enhancements, such as stop-losses or trend filters, to improve consistency.