Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT): 2026-01-03

Summary
• HBARUSDT formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.1192–0.1200, followed by consolidation.
• Price tested 0.1205 resistance multiple times, failing to break through.
• Volume surged during the 20:00–21:30 ET rally but faded after 23:00 ET.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at 64, but momentum has weakened.
• Volatility expanded with a 0.119–0.1223 range, narrowing into a 0.1175–0.1195 consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on January 3, 2026, HBARUSDT opened at 0.12033, reached a high of 0.12232, dipped to a low of 0.11745, and closed at 0.11827. Total volume over 24 hours was 56.3 million HBAR, with notional turnover of $6.9 million.

Price Structure and Candlestick Formations

HBARUSDT formed a bullish engulfing pattern during the 20:30–20:45 ET rally, breaking below a prior consolidation zone (0.1192–0.1196) and surging to 0.1205. This pattern suggested short-term buying pressure but failed to hold above 0.1205, leading to a pullback. A bearish reversal candle formed at 0.12055 (22:45 ET) as pressure waned. Later, a bearish harami at 0.1202–0.1203 (23:00–23:15 ET) confirmed weakening momentum.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period 5-minute moving averages were in alignment around 0.1201–0.1202, providing a temporary resistance cluster. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period SMAs were not clearly defined due to limited data, but a bearish bias emerged after the 0.1190 level was broken below. RSI reached a high of 64, suggesting overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram began to shrink, signaling fading bullish momentum.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Price action displayed high volatility during the 20:30–22:30 ET window, with a Bollinger Band expansion from a 0.119–0.1223 range to a 0.1175–0.1223 range. By 04:00 ET, the bands began to contract as trading activity slowed. Price settled below the 20-period lower band by the 08:00 ET mark, indicating a potential near-term oversold condition.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume peaked at 7.98 million HBAR during the 22:15–22:30 ET rally, corresponding to the 0.12148–0.12185 high. However, turnover began to diverge from price as volume dropped sharply after 23:00 ET despite continued consolidation near 0.1205. The final 6-hour period showed below-average volume and minimal price movement, suggesting traders were waiting for a breakout or reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

A key 5-minute retracement from the 0.12232 high to the 0.11745 low placed 0.1196 (61.8%) as a support level, which was briefly tested but failed to hold. The 0.1205 (38.2%) level acted as a resistance ceiling multiple times. If price tests 0.12149 (61.8% of the 22:15–22:45 ET move), a bearish continuation could gain confidence.

Forward-Looking Outlook

HBARUSDT appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp 0.1192–0.1205 bounce. A test of 0.1205–0.1208 resistance could trigger renewed buying if supported by volume. However, a breakdown below 0.1185–0.11827 would likely accelerate bearish momentum. Investors should be cautious about overbought divergence and monitor for a potential reversal pattern.

Risk Consideration

In the next 24 hours, HBARUSDT faces key support at 0.1182 and resistance at 0.1205. A failure to hold above 0.1175 could trigger further short-term bearish activity. Investors are advised to monitor volume levels and RSI for signs of momentum reversal or exhaustion.