Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price traded in a tight range, with a final 24-hour close near 0.1880 after a failed rally to 0.1969.
• Volume peaked at 8.1 million HBAR during early morning hours, but failed to confirm strength.
• RSI and MACD signaled weak momentum, with overbought levels not translating into sustained gains.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.18831 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.18802 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.19691 and a low of 0.18340. Total traded volume amounted to 203,550,300 HBAR, with a notional turnover of approximately $36.9 million over 24 hours.

The price action showed a bearish consolidation pattern, with a failed breakout above 0.195 and a breakdown below 0.192. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (20 EMA) crossed below the 50 EMA at midday, confirming a weakening trend. The 50-period daily moving average sits just above current levels, offering potential near-term support. A bearish divergence in RSI suggests momentum is fading despite attempts at range-bound rallies.

Bollinger Bands reflected a moderate volatility profile, with price frequently touching the lower band and failing to close above the middle band. The most recent swing from 0.1969 to 0.1834 formed a key 61.8% Fibonacci level near 0.1895, which may now act as a critical support or resistance. On the 15-minute timeframe, the 38.2% retracement of a minor bullish swing is currently at 0.1891, which could see renewed testing.

Volume spiked during the 00:15 ET hour with 8.1 million HBAR traded, but this was followed by a sharp decline, indicating weak follow-through. A notable divergence occurred between price and volume at 05:30 ET, where price fell to 0.18826 while volume dropped below 1.9 million HBAR—raising questions about short-term conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “RSI Oversold 1-Day Hold” strategy, which triggers trades when RSI < 30 and holds for one day with 10% stop-loss and 20% take-profit constraints, proved highly ineffective over the 2022-2025 period. It delivered a cumulative return of -34.4% and an annualised return of -5.3%, underperforming a passive hold. The strategy was characterised by a high frequency of small losses and an inability to capitalise on short-term bounces, despite the presence of a 58.5% maximum drawdown. These results suggest that RSI alone lacks predictive power in HBARUSDT’s context and may benefit from integration with trend-following or higher time frame filters. The observed volume divergences and weak momentum confirmatory signals further align with the backtest’s findings.