Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-10-31

• HBAR/USDT tested key resistance at 0.1969, initially breaking it but then consolidating around 0.1955.
• Daily momentum suggests accumulation near 0.1950–0.1969.
• Volatility remains moderate, with 24-hour turnover exceeding $1.68 billion.
• RSI hovered in neutral range; no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands indicate moderate contraction, signaling potential for a breakout.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.19397 on October 30 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1969 on October 31 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.19915 and a low of $0.18954 during the 24-hour window. Total volume was approximately 134 million HBAR, and total turnover (notional value) surpassed $1.68 billion, reflecting moderate yet consistent activity.

Structure & Formations

HBAR/USDT encountered a critical resistance level at $0.1969 twice during the 24-hour period. The first attempt to break it was successful on October 31 at 22:00 ET, but the price quickly retraced. A second test occurred after a consolidation phase and confirmed the level as a significant psychological barrier. On the hourly chart, a bullish engulfing pattern formed around 04:45 ET, indicating short-term accumulation. A doji appeared around 03:15 ET, signaling indecision. Support levels emerged near $0.1936 and $0.1922, where multiple candlesticks found buying pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above key support levels during the afternoon of October 31, confirming a short-term bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average sits near $0.1940, while the 200-period line is closer to $0.1900, suggesting HBAR is trading above its longer-term average and in a generally positive phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator showed a bullish crossover around 05:00 ET and remained positive for most of the 24-hour window, reinforcing the upward momentum. The histogram expanded after 22:00 ET, indicating increased buying pressure. RSI remained in the 50–60 range for much of the day, with brief excursions near 70 during the late-night and early morning hours, suggesting transient overbought conditions without a strong reversal signal. No clear oversold levels appeared, reinforcing the idea that HBAR/USDT remained in a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate contraction during the overnight session, particularly between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, hinting at potential consolidation and a possible breakout. Price action stayed near the upper band during the late-night surge to $0.19915, and then fell back toward the middle band, indicating that volatility remained within expected ranges. The width of the bands did not widen significantly, suggesting that large, unanticipated moves were less likely unless volume surged.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume increased significantly during the late-night and early morning hours, particularly from 02:00 to 06:00 ET, coinciding with the price approaching and testing $0.1969. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, confirming the volume-based strength of the move. However, after the initial break above $0.1969, volume and turnover failed to sustain the move, indicating that the breakout may lack follow-through from larger players. Divergence between price and volume occurred around 14:00 and 18:00 ET, where higher lows were not accompanied by rising volume, signaling caution for further bullish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.1922 to $0.19915, key levels at 61.8% (~$0.1970) and 78.6% (~$0.1985) were tested but not decisively held. The 38.2% level (~$0.1950) provided support during the consolidation phase, and price remained sticky around that level until the final hours. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the October 30 low to the current high suggest that $0.1969 is a significant 76.4% retracement level, reinforcing its role as a psychological and technical marker.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy for HBAR/USDT focuses on the price action at the $0.1969 resistance level. By defining an “encounter” as a day in which the high price reaches or exceeds $0.1969 while the previous day's close was below it, the strategy translates a qualitative event into a quantifiable signal. This rule-based approach is practical for historical testing, especially if refined with additional parameters such as volume spikes or reversal candlestick patterns. For HBAR, such an approach could help quantify the reliability of $0.1969 as a level that either leads to a breakout or triggers a pullback. In future analyses, incorporating reversal conditions (e.g., closing below $0.1969 the same day or within the next 24 hours) could improve the signal's predictive accuracy.