Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-10-26

• Hedera/Tether advanced from $0.1723 to $0.1780, closing at $0.1781 amid a 3.9% rally over 9 hours.
• A bullish breakout above the $0.1745–0.1750 resistance cluster was confirmed on high volume in early AM ET.
• MACD turned positive and RSI edged toward 60, indicating moderate momentum but no overbought condition yet.
• Volatility expanded significantly as Bollinger Bands widened, confirming a shift from consolidation to trend.
• Volume surged past 3M HBAR after 11:45 AM ET, confirming the breakout and signaling strong accumulation.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.1723 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1781 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $0.1803 and a low of $0.1711 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 31,714,312 HBAR, with turnover of $5,352,540. The price action reflected a strong bullish bias following a key breakout above a consolidation range.

The candlestick structure shows a clear bullish breakout formation from a tight consolidation range that had been in place since early morning. A key engulfing pattern emerged at $0.1745 around 9:30 AM ET, marking the start of a strong upward move. This was followed by trending candle bodies with higher highs and lower lows, suggesting a shift in sentiment from caution to optimism. The price also tested and held above the $0.1764 psychological level, indicating that buyers are now in control. A bearish doji appeared at $0.1716 in the early hours of the morning, but it was quickly absorbed by the upward wave, signaling a rejection of short-term bearish pressure.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period moving average crossing above the 50-period line (a bullish “golden cross”) just before the breakout, confirming the shift in momentum. The 200-period daily MA is currently at $0.1729, below the current price, indicating a short-term bullish divergence. The MACD line moved into positive territory at $0.00015 by 10:30 AM ET, with a rising histogram, while the RSI reached 59.6, suggesting growing momentum without yet reaching overbought conditions. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with price moving well above the upper band for a period, signaling heightened participation.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the key $0.1711–0.1745 consolidation provide immediate support at 38.2% ($0.1730) and 61.8% ($0.1739). These levels are critical in determining the depth of any pullback after the breakout. The price closed above the 61.8% level, suggesting strong conviction in the upward move. For the next 24 hours, a test of $0.1810–0.1820 is expected if the trend continues, but a pullback to retest the $0.1764 level should be watched for confirmation of sustainability.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy relies on the MACD golden cross, a widely used momentum signal, to generate entry triggers for HBARUSDT. Historically, this strategy would have initiated a 3-day hold upon the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA. However, due to a technical issue, the full MACD signal file for HBAR-USDT from 2022–2025 was not saved, preventing automated execution of the backtest. To resolve this, we can either retry the data pull in smaller chunks (e.g., by year) for better reliability or provide the golden-cross dates manually for direct signal generation. The latter option allows for quicker testing, especially if the golden-cross events are already known or can be identified from the candlestick data provided here.