Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-10-22

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) closed lower at 0.16918 after a bearish 24-hour session with a low of 0.16644.
• Momentum remains weak as RSI approaches oversold territory while MACD signals bearish divergence.
• Volatility has expanded slightly, with price lingering near the lower Bollinger Band.
• Volume picked up during the late ET sell-off, but turnover did not confirm the strength of the move.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligns with the 0.1692 level, acting as a near-term support.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.17010 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.16918 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, with a session high of 0.1715 and a low of 0.16644. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 39,345,473.0, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $6,729,000. The price closed below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, signaling short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs appear to be converging with the price near the 50-day level, hinting at potential support.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish continuation pattern, with a key support level forming near 0.1692 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.16644–0.1715 swing). A bearish engulfing pattern appears at the peak around 0.1715 and has not yet been invalidated. RSI has dipped into oversold territory near 29, suggesting a potential pause in the downward move, although MACD remains bearish, with the line crossing below the signal line and showing a diverging histogram. Price has remained near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a period of tightening volatility followed by a potential breakout or reversal.

Volume increased significantly during the late ET hours, particularly between 00:00 and 05:00 ET, aligning with the downward leg of the trend. Notional turnover spiked during the 2025-10-22 05:30 ET candle as price dropped from 0.17148 to 0.17014 in a single bar. However, volume during this move was relatively lower compared to the earlier sell-off, suggesting possible exhaustion in the short term. A divergence between price and volume should be monitored for confirmation of a potential bounce.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remain bearish, with price failing to close above either. The 50-period EMA is approaching the 200-period level on the daily chart, forming a possible convergence zone. The Fibonacci 61.8% level at 0.1692 is currently acting as a critical support, and a break below that could trigger a test of the 0.1682 level. A reversal candle on the 15-minute chart with strong volume near the lower Bollinger Band may provide a short-term bullish signal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on the 15-minute chart for HBARUSDT, using a Bullish Engulfing pattern as a buy signal and exiting the position after 5 days, showed modestly negative performance between 2022-01-01 and 2025-10-22. This result aligns with the current bearish momentum and weak volume confirmation observed during recent sell-offs. The strategy’s lack of stop-loss or take-profit rules likely contributed to the underperformance, as sharp corrections without price-volume confirmation can erode returns quickly. Given the current market condition, traders relying on pattern-based strategies without risk controls should consider incorporating a trailing stop or volatility-based exit rules.