Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-10-14

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) traded in a volatile range between $0.1763 and $0.1955, finishing near $0.1803.
• Key resistance at $0.1945 and support at $0.1800 were tested multiple times.
• RSI approached overbought levels (70+) during the Asian session and dropped into oversold (<30)** overnight. • Volume surged during the bearish move below **$0.1800**, indicating heightened selling pressure.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at **$0.1872** on October 13 and reached a high of **$0.1955** before closing at **$0.1803** on October 14 at 12:00 ET. The low for the session was **$0.1763**, reflecting a broad $0.0192 intraday range. Total traded volume reached **109,235,830.0** units, with notional turnover amounting to **$18,601,191.05**. The price action was characterized by a sharp pullback in the early North American session and a gradual consolidation phase afterward.

Structure & Formations

HBARUSDT formed a bearish
engulfing pattern after reaching its high near $0.1955, signaling a shift in sentiment. A key support level at $0.1800 was tested three times, with the last rejection confirming its relevance. Notable Doji candles appeared near $0.1930 and $0.1780, signaling indecision among traders. A descending triangle pattern formed between $0.1950 and $0.1760**, with the price breaking the lower trendline with high conviction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA, signaling a bearish bias. The 50-period MA held above the 200-period MA on the daily chart, suggesting a short-term downtrend within a broader neutral-to-bullish context. The price currently sits below the 20 and 50 MA on the shorter timeframe, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the session and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI reached overbought conditions above 70 during the Asian session but reversed sharply into oversold territory (<30)** after 5:00 ET. This suggests a potential short-term bounce is possible from the **$0.1763–$0.1803** range.

The price is currently consolidating below **$0.1800**, with a critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at **$0.1833**. A break below **$0.1775** could trigger further downward momentum, while a recovery above **$0.1835** may signal a reversal. Volatility has increased, with a **20-period Bollinger Band width of 3.4%**, indicating a possible continuation of the current bearish phase.

Bollinger Bands

HBARUSDT’s price remained
within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with volatility expanding after the 10:00 ET breakout. The middle band is now above $0.1850, while the lower band has fallen to $0.1775**, forming a tightening range. Price proximity to the lower band suggests the pair is in a consolidation phase ahead of a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp drop below $0.1800, with over 16 million units traded in a single 15-minute candle. Notional turnover increased by 15% during the bearish phase, confirming the validity of the move. A divergence between price and volume during the early Asian session suggested temporary indecision, but the late session saw strong alignment, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1853 acted as a minor resistance during the Asian session, while the 61.8% level at $0.1833 provided a potential short-term support. The daily Fibonacci levels from the recent high at $0.1955 to the low at $0.1763 indicate that a test of the $0.1775 level is highly likely in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong RSI divergence and the bearish engulfing pattern observed in the 15-minute timeframe, an RSI-based strategy could be a suitable backtesting approach. The standard RSI settings (14-period, 30/70 thresholds) would likely capture the overbought conditions during the Asian session and the oversold conditions during the early North American session. If applied to HBARUSDT from January 1, 2022, to October 14, 2025, this strategy could assess whether the asset is prone to mean reversion or trend continuation during these signal states. Additional parameters such as a 5% stop-loss and 10% take-profit may be added to control risk and optimize returns.