Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-10-13

• HBARUSDT traded in a tight range initially before forming a bullish breakout with a 0.188–0.189 resistance cluster.
• Momentum improved after 19:00 ET, with RSI stabilizing above 45 and MACD crossing into positive territory.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with price reaching a 24-hour high of 0.1901 before consolidating.
• Notable volume acceleration occurred between 19:00 and 20:30 ET, confirming upward price action.
• Fibonacci retracement of 0.18885 aligns with a key psychological level, now acting as support.

Price Action and Volatility

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.17828 on 2025-10-12 12:00 ET and closed at 0.18873 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1901 and low of 0.17768. The pair saw a total traded volume of 89,716,294.0 and a notional turnover of approximately $16.19 million over the 24-hour window. After a subdued start, the pair began forming higher highs and higher lows, with the 0.188–0.189 resistance level breaking decisively during a volume surge. This suggests a shift in sentiment from bearish consolidation to potential short-term bullish momentum.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Key support and resistance levels on the 15-minute chart included 0.186–0.187 and 0.188–0.189. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30 ET, confirming a breakout above 0.188 after a prior bearish consolidation. The pattern suggested a shift in short-term momentum. Additionally, a series of higher highs and lower lows between 19:00 and 21:00 ET formed a bullish divergence, signaling strength in the upward move. A doji at 0.18662 around 19:30 ET indicated indecision before the breakout, followed by a strong 15-minute green candle at 19:45 ET.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period moving average around 20:00 ET, forming a golden cross. This reinforced the bullish bias. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 19:30 and 21:00 ET, with the price moving from the lower band to the upper band during the breakout. This volatility expansion suggested a shift in market dynamics and a period of strong directional movement. Price remained within the bands until the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting the move was orderly and not driven by extreme volatility.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD crossed into positive territory around 19:45 ET and remained above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. RSI reached a low of 37 around 19:00 ET but began a steady climb, stabilizing above 45 by 20:30 ET, indicating improving buying pressure. RSI did not show signs of overbought conditions during the upward move, suggesting that the rally remained within reasonable limits. This combination of MACD and RSI behavior supported the view that the pair may continue its upward trend in the near term, though with caution on potential overextension.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of the “Bullish Engulfing – 1-Day Hold” strategy on HBARUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13 yielded a total return of –11.04% with a Sharpe ratio of –0.46 and a max drawdown of 14.64%. The poor performance indicates that the strategy may not be robust in volatile or range-bound conditions. Notably, the 2025-10-13 bullish engulfing pattern did not immediately produce a positive outcome when held for 24 hours, closing in consolidation. While the pattern on this day confirmed a short-term breakout, the broader volatility and market structure suggest that this strategy may benefit from additional filters, such as a trailing stop-loss or stricter volume-based confirmation criteria, to improve risk-adjusted returns.