Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-10-12

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) closed near 0.1705 after a 24-hour decline from a high of 0.18108 to a low of 0.16502.
• A sharp bearish reversal occurred around 20:30 ET (10/11), triggering a drop of ~1.5% in ~75 minutes.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the drop, with a 3.8x increase in volume and turnover.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions at the peak and oversold territory near 0.1675–0.1685.
• A potential support cluster is forming between 0.1680 and 0.1650, with mixed candlestick formations.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.17455 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.18108, a low of 0.16502, and closed at 0.1705 by the next 12:00 ET. Total 15-minute volume summed to 146,418,392 HBAR, with a notional turnover of approximately $24,790,870. The price action reflected a volatile bearish reversal in the late hours of the previous day, followed by a slow recovery.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a sharp bearish breakdown beginning at ~20:30 ET, marked by a large bearish engulfing candle and a long lower shadow. A significant support level appears to have formed between 0.1680–0.1650, reinforced by multiple bounces and consolidation. In the latter half of the 24-hour window, a bullish divergence in volume and price during the 06:00–08:30 ET period suggested buyers may be stepping in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price briefly crossed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the early recovery phase (~06:00–08:30 ET). This could signal a short-term bullish bias, though the 50-period line at ~0.1700 may act as a re-entry threshold for bears. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 0.1730, with price below the 200-period line (~0.1755), suggesting a bearish medium-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit an oversold level (~35) near 0.1685, indicating potential support. Momentum, as captured by the MACD, turned negative during the breakdown and remained bearish until ~05:30 ET. A small positive divergence in the 06:00–08:30 ET period may suggest a short-term countertrend rally is underway, though bearish momentum remains dominant.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the breakdown, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band at ~0.1680. After consolidating within the bands for several hours, price moved back toward the upper band during the recovery, indicating mixed volatility conditions. The contraction in the 03:00–04:30 ET timeframe suggests a potential reversal was brewing.

Volume & Turnover

The sharp breakdown between 20:30–21:15 ET was accompanied by a volume spike of ~7 million HBAR (~$1.2 million turnover), confirming the bearish move. In contrast, the 06:00–08:30 ET recovery phase saw moderate volume with a notional turnover of ~$1.5 million. The divergence suggests weak bullish conviction, with bears still in control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing high (0.18108) to low (0.16502), key retracement levels include 0.1759 (61.8%) and 0.1715 (38.2%). Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before reversing lower. The 38.2% level (~0.1715) appears to be holding as a minor resistance, but a breakout could trigger a retest of the 61.8% level.

In the next 24 hours, HBARUSDT could test the 0.1705–0.1720 range as a potential pivot. A sustained break above 0.1725 may invite short-term buyers, but structural bearishness remains likely unless volume and momentum confirm a stronger bullish shift. Investors should remain cautious of further volatility and potential consolidation below 0.1700.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a confirmed break below 0.1685, with a stop-loss at the 20-period moving average (~0.1700) and a target at 0.1650. This aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern and the formation of a potential support cluster. Long positions could be considered only on a clean break above 0.1725, with a stop below 0.1710 and a target at 0.1750. This setup would test the strength of the consolidation phase and the potential for a short-term reversal.