Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-10-07

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) traded in a descending pattern over the last 24 hours, closing near the lower end of its range.
• Volume spiked during the afternoon and evening hours, but notional turnover failed to confirm a strong trend.
• A key support zone between 0.2244–0.2262 appears to be holding as price consolidates in the final hours.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest bearish momentum, with no clear signs of short-term oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded in the second half of the day, with price testing Bollinger Band lows on several occasions.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.23004 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.23304, and a low of 0.21661 before closing at 0.21731 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 63,958,648.0 with a notional turnover reflecting the full price swing. The pair displayed a bearish bias, with a prolonged decline in the latter half of the day breaking below key intraday support levels.

The price structure over the 15-minute chart shows multiple bearish signals, including a key breakdown below the 0.22923 level, which acted as a prior support turning into resistance. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.23284–0.23180, signaling a shift in sentiment. On the daily scale, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain above the close, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 200-day MA offers a critical long-term support at ~0.2270, now in play.

MacD lines have remained negative throughout most of the day, with bearish crossovers in the afternoon. RSI has not yet fallen into oversold territory, remaining between 30 and 45, indicating that the selloff may continue unless a short-term rebound is confirmed. Bollinger Bands showed an expansion in the second half of the day, with price testing the lower band multiple times. This suggests increased volatility, but no definitive breakout above or below key levels has occurred.

Volume and turnover spiked sharply in the early evening hours, particularly between 18:00 and 20:30 ET, but the price failed to maintain any clear trend post-break. This divergence suggests some exhaustion in the downward move, though buyers have yet to step in meaningfully. Fibonacci retracement levels on the key swing high at 0.23304 and low at 0.21661 show 38.2% at 0.2264 and 61.8% at 0.2248, with the latter appearing as a strong consolidation point for the close.

The pair’s action over the next 24 hours will likely hinge on whether the current consolidation holds at 0.2248–0.2262. A breakout above this range may bring back buyers and retest the 0.22923 level, while a breakdown below 0.2244 could trigger a deeper pullback toward 0.2225–0.2200. Investors should remain cautious about volatility and watch for volume confirmation of any reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering short positions on HBARUSDT when price breaks below the 15-minute 20-period moving average and confirms with a bearish engulfing candle. Stops are placed at the recent swing high, and targets are set at 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels of the intraday move. A backtest over the last 30 days would assess the strategy’s win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdowns to determine its viability. Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmed breakdowns, this strategy appears to align with the current technical bias, though it remains sensitive to volatility spikes and sudden reversals.