Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-10-05

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) traded in a range-bound pattern with a late 24-hour rally to a high of $0.2267.
• Momentum picked up after 2:45 AM ET, breaking above key resistance with strong volume.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the second half of the day, suggesting increased market participation.
• RSI surged into overbought territory, raising the possibility of a near-term pullback.
• Volume and turnover aligned with the price move, confirming the strength of the breakout.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.2150 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2205 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range saw a high of $0.2267 and a low of $0.2150. Total volume was 103,079,868.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $22.75 million. Price action showed a consolidation pattern followed by a breakout, with a strong rally in the early morning hours.

The 15-minute chart displayed a key resistance level at $0.2215, which was broken with a bullish confirmation candle at $0.2215 on the 5:15 AM ET time frame. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed during the 7:15 AM to 7:45 AM ET window, signaling strong buying pressure. Support at $0.2195 held briefly before a retest of the breakout level. The price closed near the high of the day, suggesting potential continuation of the upward move.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed convergence, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA, indicating a potential acceleration in the uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. The price is currently trading above the 50-day MA, which remains a key support.

MACD was positive and expanding throughout the morning, confirming the strength of the rally. RSI crossed above 70 early in the morning, signaling overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout, indicating rising volatility. Price moved outside the upper band briefly at $0.2267, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

Volume spiked during the breakout and remained elevated during the rally, confirming the price action. Notional turnover aligned with the volume surge, particularly between 2:45 AM and 5:00 AM ET. A divergence in volume did not appear during the pullbacks, suggesting strong conviction in the move. The overall price/volume profile supports a continuation of the upward move.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent low at $0.2150 to the high at $0.2267 show key levels at $0.2225 (38.2%) and $0.2240 (61.8%). The price retested $0.2225 and moved higher, suggesting a potential target near $0.2240. A break above $0.2267 may target the next psychological level at $0.2280. Conversely, a retest of the 61.8% retracement at $0.2240 could provide a short-term opportunity for a pullback.

The current technical setup supports a bullish outlook for the next 24 hours. A continued move above $0.2240 could open the door to the next level at $0.2267, but a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2240 may trigger consolidation. Traders should monitor the 50-period MA and RSI for signs of overbought exhaustion, while being cautious about a potential reversal if volume fails to confirm further gains.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The backtesting strategy described involves entering a long position when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low and a take-profit at 1.5 times the entry-level ATR. Based on today’s data, the crossover occurred at $0.2215 with a stop-loss potentially placed at $0.2205 and a target near $0.2245. The strategy aligns with the observed price action, particularly the 7:15 AM ET bullish engulfing pattern. A backtest across the past 30 days could offer insights into the strategy’s viability in similar market conditions.