Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-09-27

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range between $0.20919 and $0.21639, closing near intraday lows.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged post-18:30 ET, with price dropping from 0.21617 to 0.21247 over a 4-hour period.
• Volatility expanded in the morning, with a 0.21046–0.21639 range, but contracted during late trading hours.
• Notional turnover reached $2.16M at peak bullish swings but declined during the bearish phase.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET, followed by confirmation bearish candles and a doji near $0.2130.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-26, Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.20963, reached a high of $0.21639, and closed at $0.2130 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 156,015,871.0, with notional turnover reaching approximately $32.8 million. The price action reflected a strong bearish bias in the final hours of the session after a brief early rally.

The candlestick structure showed a broad bullish push from 16:00 to 18:30 ET, where price surged from $0.20963 to $0.21617. However, bearish pressure emerged sharply after 18:30 ET, marked by a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET (0.21574 → 0.21391) and a doji at 02:45 ET on 2025-09-27 (0.21385 → 0.21361), suggesting potential exhaustion in the downtrend. Key support levels to watch are $0.21247 and $0.21171, while resistance resides near $0.21391 and $0.2146.

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart remained in an uptrend until 18:30 ET but began to flatten, while the 50-period SMA crossed the 20-period SMA into bearish territory. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs are still in bullish alignment, suggesting a larger bullish bias despite the short-term bearish correction.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart peaked at ~68 during the morning rally but dropped to ~35 by 04:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions. The MACD showed a narrowing bullish histogram during the morning hours, followed by a bearish crossover at 18:45 ET. This suggests that while short-term momentum weakened, the RSI suggests a potential bounce from oversold levels could be near.

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart widened during the bullish phase, narrowing again as bearish pressure took hold, indicating a potential tightening of volatility. Price traded near the lower band during the 02:45–04:00 ET timeframe, suggesting a possible bounce point. Fibonacci retracement levels from the morning swing (0.20963–0.21639) indicate key levels at 0.2142 (38.2%) and 0.2128 (61.8%), both of which were tested during the evening bearish move.

Volume was elevated during the morning rally and dipped as the price corrected, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover peaked at ~$2.16M during the 18:30–20:00 ET period but declined afterward. Price and turnover aligned bearishly during the 18:30–20:00 ET window but diverged afterward, with volume dropping while the price continued lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration is a mean-reversion approach based on a combination of RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands. It enters long positions when RSI dips below 30 (oversold) and the price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop loss set at the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% level and a take profit at the 38.2% level. The MACD is used to confirm the strength of the divergence.

Given the current setup, a long entry near 0.21247–0.2128 (61.8% Fibonacci and lower Bollinger Band) would align with the backtest criteria, with a potential target of 0.2133–0.2143. However, bearish divergence in volume and a weak RSI recovery could challenge the strategy’s effectiveness in the next 24 hours.