Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) — 2025-09-21

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) fell to a 24-hour low of $0.23576 amid a bearish trend with low volatility.
• Price action broke key support levels, with RSI showing oversold conditions below 30.
• Volume remained subdued, with a total notional turnover of $338,000 over the 24-hour period.
• Bollinger Bands contracted into a tight range before a sharp downward break.
• No strong bullish reversal patterns formed, suggesting downward momentum could persist.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.24507 on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.23576 on 2025-09-21 at 16:00 ET. The pair hit a high of $0.24537 and a low of $0.23566 within the 24-hour window. Total volume reached approximately 14.99 million tokens, with a notional turnover of around $338,000.

Structure & Formations

Price action for HBARUSDT over the 24-hour period displayed a strong bearish bias. Key support levels were tested and broken, including a 20-period moving average around $0.242 and a critical swing low at $0.240. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the start of the session, signaling increased selling pressure. A potential support area may emerge near $0.236, where the 200-period moving average could offer some short-term stability. A bearish trendline and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high to low also appear to align at this area.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were bearishly aligned, both below the price action, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 100- and 200-period lines, signaling a potential shift into a more bearish phase. The 50-day moving average now sits near $0.236, where traders may watch for a potential bounce or continuation of the bearish move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line and into negative territory, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a gradual expansion as selling pressure increased. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a reversal in the MACD, it is unclear if this represents a buying opportunity or simply a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted during the early part of the session, suggesting low volatility and indecision among traders. However, as the price broke below the lower band, volatility expanded sharply, confirming a breakout to the downside. Price is currently trading near the lower band at $0.23576, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained generally subdued throughout the session, with occasional spikes during the late hours of the trade window. The highest volume spike occurred at $0.2375, coinciding with a short-term reversal attempt. Notional turnover mirrored volume behavior, remaining low until a sharp drop occurred after 09:45 ET. A divergence between price and volume at $0.242 suggests a lack of conviction among buyers during attempts to retest higher levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the high of $0.24537 to the low of $0.23566 show key levels at $0.242 (38.2%), $0.240 (50%), and $0.2377 (61.8%). The price broke below the 38.2% and 50% levels without forming strong reversal patterns, suggesting that the 61.8% level at $0.2377 may be the next target before testing the lower band of the Bollinger Bands.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could involve using the 50-period moving average as a signal line in conjunction with RSI. Traders may look to sell when price crosses below the 50-period moving average and RSI falls below 30, particularly if volume confirms the bearish breakout. A stop-loss could be placed slightly above the most recent swing high, while a target could be set at the next Fibonacci or moving average level. This setup could be backtested on a weekly basis over the past 6 months to evaluate its effectiveness in trending and range-bound environments.