Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-09-19

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.2476, peaked at $0.2503, and closed near $0.2386, with notable volatility and bearish reversal patterns.
• A strong downward move below key support levels was confirmed by declining RSI and bearish MACD divergence.
• The 24-hour volume surged past 58 million HBAR, with notional turnover exceeding $14.2 million, showing heightened bearish conviction.
• Bollinger Band contraction was observed early, followed by a sharp price expansion to the lower band, signaling increased downside risk.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted a key 61.8% level at $0.2430, where price stalled before continuing its decline.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.2476 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.2503, and closed at $0.2386 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour period saw a total trading volume of 58,156,050 HBAR and a notional turnover of approximately $14.2 million. The price action displayed significant bearish momentum and a breakdown of key support levels.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish bias. A series of lower highs and lower lows emerged after the price broke below the $0.2460 support. A bearish engulfing pattern at $0.2490 and a key doji near $0.2450 signaled potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are also trending downward, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD showed bearish divergence as price formed higher lows but the MACD formed lower lows, confirming weakening bullish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 during the morning hours, but price continued to fall, indicating a lack of immediate support. Volatility expanded after a contraction in the early hours, with price reaching the lower Bollinger Band by midday. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high at $0.2503 to the low at $0.2363 sits at $0.2430, where price stalled briefly before breaking lower.

Volume surged during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with notional turnover reaching a 24-hour peak of $1.5 million in the 15-minute bar at 15:15 ET. This suggests increased bearish participation, with no signs of a counter-trend rally. The price continues to trade below all major moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-day lines, indicating a deeper bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish divergence in MACD and the breakdown of key Fibonacci levels, a short-biased backtest could be constructed by entering a short position upon a close below the 61.8% retracement level at $0.2430, with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period moving average. A target could be set near $0.2350, using RSI as an exit trigger when it shows signs of divergence or enters oversold territory again. This strategy would benefit from the observed volume surges and continued price weakness seen in the 24-hour chart.