Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• HBARUSDT closed near the session high, showing strong bullish momentum after a 0.23293 support test.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory, while MACD showed a bullish crossover, confirming upward thrust.
• Volatility increased significantly, as Bollinger Bands expanded with price near the upper band.
• Notional turnover spiked during the 19:45–20:45 ET window, coinciding with a 0.2375–0.2440 price surge.
• Key 15-min support at 0.23405 and resistance at 0.24497 were tested multiple times with mixed results.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.23431 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.24786 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.25178 and a low of 0.23293. The pair surged 8.6% in the 24-hour window, with total volume hitting 316,393,862.0 and turnover amounting to $79,107,559.0.

The price action shows a clear bullish bias over the last 24 hours, forming a textbook breakout pattern from a descending channel that had been in place since early September. The most notable resistance at 0.23405 was broken decisively during the morning session, followed by a strong rally into the evening. A large bullish engulfing pattern appeared on the 15-min chart around 19:45 ET, which preceded a sharp move above the 0.24000 psychological level.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart have both turned sharply upward, confirming the strength of the move. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is also trending higher, suggesting medium-term bullish momentum. The price is currently trading above all three of the key moving averages (20, 50, and 200-period), indicating a strong bull market.

The RSI has surged into overbought territory, reaching 76, while the MACD has shown a strong bullish crossover with a significant positive histogram. This signals strong upward momentum and potential continuation of the trend. Volatility has also increased, as evidenced by the expanding Bollinger Bands. The price is currently resting near the upper band, which typically signals strength and a potential for further upside. However, the RSI near overbought levels suggests caution, as sharp corrections could follow if momentum stalls.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing low at 0.23293 and high at 0.25178 indicate key levels for the next 24 hours: the 0.2455 (38.2%) and 0.2416 (61.8%) retracement levels. A breakout above the 0.24592 resistance (identified as a key 15-min level) would likely bring the 0.25224 level into focus, while a failure to hold above the 0.24496 level could bring the 0.24302 pivot point into play.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish momentum and key technical signals, a potential backtest strategy could be structured as follows: enter a long position when the price closes above the 15-min 20-period MA with a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed, and the RSI above 55. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent 15-min support at 0.24496, while a take-profit target would aim for the 0.2470–0.2480 range. This setup leverages confirmed momentum and support levels while managing risk with a defined stop. The next 24 hours will be critical in determining whether the move above 0.24592 holds, offering a continuation or a potential pullback into key Fibonacci levels. Investors should remain cautious as RSI overbought conditions could trigger short-term profit-taking or a correction if macro sentiment shifts.