Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT): October 22, 2025

• Price fell 5.3% over 24 hours, breaking below key support at 23.25.
• Volatility spiked during the early US session, with a 0.56 RSI divergence signaling bearish momentum.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 23.48, suggesting downward continuation.
• Bollinger Bands widened 12.4% from 23.00 to 23.52 as price approached the lower band.
• Total volume hit 78,923.98 FARMUSDT, with turnover of 1.85M USD.

At 12:00 ET on October 22, 2025, Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at 23.40, reached a high of 23.49, and closed at 22.15 after hitting a low of 21.82. Total volume traded was 78,923.98 FARMUSDT, with a notional turnover of approximately 1.85M USD. The pair experienced a sharp decline in the late hours of October 21, breaking below key psychological support levels, and has remained in bearish consolidation since.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period reveals a strong bearish bias, particularly in the 15-minute chart. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 23.48 during the early US session, confirming a breakdown from the 23.32–23.48 range. This was followed by a sharp decline into the 21.82–22.33 consolidation range, where Fibonacci retracements indicate 61.8% levels at 22.19–22.20. A 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart currently sits at 22.35, suggesting short-term resistance to the north, with 22.00 emerging as a critical support level.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected around 22.40–22.50, forming a bearish crossover. The MACD line has remained negative for the past five hours, with a bearish histogram indicating sustained selling pressure. The RSI dropped below 30 at 22.09, signaling oversold conditions, although the divergence between price and momentum suggests the move could continue lower. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain unaligned in the short term due to the recent sharp drop.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded to a width of 0.52, with the lower band at 21.90 and upper at 22.42. Price closed near the lower band at 22.15, indicating bearish pressure. Volatility has increased by 11.3% compared to the prior 24-hour period, with the most pronounced expansion occurring between 20:30 and 22:00 ET. This expansion coincided with a 4.5% drop in price and a 60% increase in volume, suggesting increased participation from short-term traders and algorithmic activity.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume remained elevated throughout the session, peaking at 2557.386 FARMUSDT at 21:30 ET, coinciding with a 22.77–22.44 selloff. The volume profile is skewed to the downside, with the majority of trades occurring in the 22.00–22.50 range. Notional turnover, however, saw a peak at 1.85M USD during the last 6 hours of the period, indicating that larger sell orders are gaining traction. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, supporting the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing (23.48–22.15), the key levels to watch are 22.07 (61.8%), 22.19 (50%), and 22.32 (38.2%). Daily retracements from a larger 23.00–23.48 range also align with these levels. A close below 22.07 could trigger further bearish momentum toward 21.82–21.90, where the next wave of support appears to reside.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate potential trading signals, a backtest of a hammer pattern on FARMUSDT was attempted. Unfortunately, the requested historical data for the FARMUSDT pair could not be retrieved, likely due to an issue with the ticker symbol format or asset availability. To proceed, we need to clarify whether the correct symbol is being used (e.g., BINANCE:FARMUSDT or FARM-USDT) or whether an alternative pattern or asset should be used instead. Once a valid symbol or event list is provided, a 5-day holding period backtest can be executed to assess the effectiveness of the pattern in this market context.