Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

Summary• FARMUSDT opened at $23.16 and closed at $23.42, with a high of $23.75 and low of $23.01.• A bullish breakout above $23.65 on rising volume confirmed a short-term reversal.• Volatility spiked as the price broke out of a descending channel, suggesting a potential trend shift.

Price Action and Key Levels

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $23.16 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $23.42 the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $23.75, and the low was $23.01. Total volume reached 5,495.74, while notional turnover was approximately $127,650. The price action saw a key breakout above $23.65 on heavy volume and closing above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal.

Trend and Moving Averages

The price moved above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, indicating a bullish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the price appears to be consolidating near the 100-day moving average, with a longer-term bearish bias suggested by the 200-day MA acting as resistance.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

RSI climbed above 50, suggesting growing momentum, and briefly entered overbought territory above 60. MACD crossed into positive territory with a growing histogram, supporting a bullish outlook. Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, indicating heightened volatility, with the price currently testing the upper band, consistent with a breakout pattern.

Volume and Turnover Confirmation

Volume surged near $23.65 and again near $23.85, confirming the price breakouts. The increase in notional turnover matched the bullish price action, indicating strong participation and conviction in the upward move. Divergences were not observed, suggesting the trend has solid backing from market participants.

Fibonacci and Key Support/Resistance

The recent swing from $23.01 to $23.75 formed a 61.8% retracement level at approximately $23.46, which was briefly tested before a breakout. The 38.2% level at $23.37 acted as a temporary support. These levels could now act as potential areas of retesting in the short term, with the breakout above $23.65 indicating stronger bear resistance ahead at $23.85 and $23.95.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtested strategy, relying on daily MACD and RSI signals, produced underwhelming results with a -29.1% total return and a Sharpe ratio of just 0.05, indicating poor risk-adjusted performance. The modest 2.3% annualized return came with a maximum drawdown of -54.5%, highlighting the strategy’s vulnerability to high volatility. The low win rate (~10.6%) and narrow spread between average gains and losses suggest frequent whipsaws in a volatile asset like FARM. To improve robustness, the strategy could be enhanced by incorporating higher-timeframe trend filters, tightening exits with trailing stops, and combining multiple signals for entry confirmation. The interactive backtest module can be used to further explore trade logs and equity curves.