Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

Summary
• Price dipped over 24 hours, closing near support after a strong sell-off from $23.
• Volume surged during the downward move, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at potential reversal.

The 24-hour period for FARMUSDT on 2025-11-07 began at $22.80 and closed at $22.73, with a high of $23.58 and a low of $21.33. Total trading volume reached 50,408.23 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.13 million. The price declined in a bearish trend, with a key support level forming near $21.50 and a resistance at $23.00.

Structure & Formations

FARMUSDT showed a bearish breakdown from the $23.00 level, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern in the early hours. A potential support level is forming at $21.50–$22.00, where the price paused after a sharp decline. A doji formed near $22.30, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Traders may watch for a rebound or a break below $21.50 to confirm the next leg down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20 SMA ($22.85) and 50 SMA ($22.90), confirming the bearish bias. Daily data shows price below the 50/100/200-day moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend. A cross back above the 20 SMA could signal a short-term recovery.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remains negative, with a bearish crossover and diverging histogram. RSI is in oversold territory at 29.5, indicating potential for a bounce. However, the prolonged bearish move and volume confirmation suggest caution, as a rebound could be a trap before a new leg down.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the sharp decline, with price reaching the lower band at $21.33. This move suggests a period of increased selling pressure. If price remains between the bands, the range-bound structure could hold, but a break below the lower band would signal a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the downward move, especially around $21.50–$21.33, confirming the bearish action. Turnover increased alongside volume, showing conviction in the sell-off. Price and turnover moved in line during this period, reinforcing the bearish narrative. A divergence in volume and price could signal a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the high of $23.58 to the low of $21.33, key Fibonacci levels at $22.80 (38.2%), $22.43 (61.8%) appear to have acted as temporary resistance and support. Price could test these levels again for direction, with a break below $21.50 (100%) opening the door to further losses.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current oversold RSI reading and bearish momentum, a backtest using RSI(14) as a signal generator could be useful. The proposed strategy would generate long signals when RSI falls below 30 and hold the position for 3 days. This approach assumes a mean-reverting behavior in FARMUSDT. If RSI confirms a potential rebound, this strategy could capture short-term gains. However, given the recent volatility and weak trend, a trailing stop or risk management rule would be essential to limit losses during further declines.