Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

• Price opened at $24.30, surged to a high of $25.13 before consolidating, and closed at $23.58 after a sharp decline.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish as RSI approached overbought levels and then oversold, suggesting a possible reversal.
• Volatility spiked midday with high-volume moves, followed by diverging price and turnover in the final hours, indicating possible profit-taking or liquidation.
• A key resistance cluster formed around $25.00, with support testing at $24.50 and a breakdown below $24.16 to $23.13 signaling a bearish bias.

24-Hour Price Summary and Turnover

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $24.30 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $25.13, fell to a low of $23.13, and closed at $23.58 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 51,504.38 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,228,633. The pair exhibited pronounced intraday volatility and divergent price-volume dynamics in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed a bullish breakout above $24.75 in the early hours, followed by a pullback and breakdown below key support at $24.16, triggering a bearish trend. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a bullish alignment during the morning but converged as the pair declined. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are in a bearish cross, with the 200-day MA acting as a strong resistance. The current close is below both 50- and 100-day MA, suggesting continued bearish momentum may follow.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence in the morning, aligning with the bullish breakout above $24.75. However, a sharp bearish crossover occurred after 19:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. The RSI(14) rose above 70 into overbought territory during the midday rally, then collapsed below 30 in the late afternoon, signaling a classic oversold condition. These readings suggest a possible bounce from current levels but with a high probability of further bearish continuation if key support levels fail.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Volatility expanded significantly during the afternoon as the price moved from the upper band to the lower band, indicating a high-risk reversal scenario. The breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the morning high to afternoon low confirmed bearish sentiment. The 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels now act as potential resistance and support, respectively, for near-term price action.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume surged during the early breakout above $25.00, validating the move, but dropped significantly during the late afternoon decline despite a sharp drop in price. This divergence suggests reduced conviction in the bearish move and may hint at short-covering or accumulation by longs. Turnover spiked midday, with a noticeable drop in the last four hours, indicating possible profit-taking or a bearish exhaustion phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A swing-trading strategy based on the MACD Death Cross and RSI(14) ≤ 30 as a close-position signal appears to align with today’s price behavior. A short entry would have been triggered in the early evening following the MACD crossover, with a target exit based on the RSI reaching 30 in the late afternoon. This strategy could benefit from additional risk controls such as a 5% stop-loss or a 7-day holding limit. Further testing over historical data from 2022–2025 would help validate its effectiveness across varying market conditions.