Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

• Price declined from $24.41 to $21.75 during the 24-hour period, with a final close near $22.45.
• A notable bearish reversal pattern was observed around 2025-10-11 18:30, where volume surged alongside a sharp price drop.
• Momentum weakened in the RSI, remaining in oversold territory for much of the session, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volatility expanded in the latter half of the day, especially after 04:30 ET, as FARMUSDT traded within a wide $2.69 range.
• Turnover increased significantly during the 04:30–05:00 ET session, indicating heightened participation during the sharp rebound.

Price Movement and Structure

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $24.41 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11 and traded as low as $21.75 before closing at $22.45 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. The 24-hour period saw total trading volume of 15,680.05 and a notional turnover of approximately $349,703. The price action displayed bearish continuation and occasional attempts at recovery, suggesting a volatile and indecisive session.

Key support levels emerged at $22.00 and $21.75, both of which were tested multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 18:30 ET, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. Conversely, a bullish hammer appeared at 04:30 ET, indicating a possible reversal after a sharp decline.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed FARMUSDT trading below both, pointing to bearish bias. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart also remains above current price levels, reinforcing a longer-term downtrend.

The MACD crossed below the zero line, with a bearish crossover confirming the downtrend. The RSI hovered between 20 and 40 for most of the session, suggesting oversold conditions, which could support a near-term bounce if buyers re-enter the market.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion from 04:30 ET onward, with the price breaching the lower band and then rising toward the middle band. This suggests an increase in volatility and a potential for consolidation or a breakout attempt.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent $21.75 to $24.44 swing suggest key levels for possible reactions at 38.2% ($23.36) and 61.8% ($22.68). The price briefly tested the 38.2% level during a mid-day rebound, but failed to hold above it.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume and turnover were significantly elevated during the 04:30–05:00 ET session, coinciding with a sharp rebound from $21.70 to $22.41. The volume surged to nearly 6,000 units in that period, nearly double the average hourly volume. This suggests strong buying pressure or short-covering at the lower end of the range. However, volume declined after that rebound, implying the momentum may be weakening.

A divergence between price and volume occurred later in the session when the price continued to test key support levels without a corresponding increase in volume, hinting at waning conviction in the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using a combination of Fibonacci retracement levels and the 20-period moving average to identify entry and exit points. For example, a long entry could be triggered when the price bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) and closes above the 20-period moving average. Stops could be placed below the next Fibonacci level or key support. This approach would aim to capture short-term rebounds amid a broader bearish trend, leveraging both price structure and momentum indicators.