Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

• FARMUSDT traded in a narrow range before surging past $27.10 in late morning ET.
• Volatility increased with a sharp selloff in the final candle, closing near $26.00.
• Strong volume and turnover observed during the $26.50–$27.20 price action.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions, but was not followed by sustainable bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion mid-day before a sharp contraction late in the session.

The FARMUSDT pair opened at $26.45 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $27.23, and closed at $26.00 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. The 24-hour volume amounted to approximately 10,406.74 units, with a total turnover of $278,334.25. The session displayed a volatile profile, with a sharp bearish move in the final candle pushing price below $26.50.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bullish breakout above $26.80 followed by a consolidation period before a decisive bearish breakdown. Key resistance emerged at $27.10 and $27.20, while support levels were confirmed at $26.50 and $26.34. A long lower shadow candle at $26.35–$26.70 signaled indecision and downward bias. The final candle, a bearish engulfing pattern, confirmed short-term bearish momentum and increased bearish conviction among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) showed a bullish crossover around $26.65–$26.70, followed by a bearish crossover as the selloff accelerated. The 50-period moving average currently sits above $26.80, while the 20-period line declined sharply toward $26.60. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $26.65, with the 200-period at $26.45, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias for the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bullish divergence during the morning push above $27.10, peaking at +0.08 before reversing sharply. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (75–80) in mid-session but failed to sustain the momentum, dropping sharply toward 30 as the market sold off. This indicates a lack of follow-through buying pressure and a potential reversal point in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price moved between $26.80 and $27.20, with the upper band reaching $27.35 and the lower band at $26.55. A sharp contraction followed in the final hour, with the bands tightening as the price dropped below $26.50. The selloff closed near the lower band, indicating bearish exhaustion or a potential bounce toward the midline at $26.65 in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were highest between $26.50 and $27.20, with the largest spike at $27.10–$27.15 where volume exceeded 1,000 units. However, during the final selloff, despite high volume, turnover was moderate, signaling a divergence that could indicate weakening bearish conviction. The final candle, a large bearish engulfing pattern, saw volume above average but failed to close near the session low, suggesting a potential short-term floor.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent $26.00–$27.23 swing, the 38.2% retracement level sits at $26.68 and the 61.8% at $26.54. The closing price of $26.00 sits near the 78.6% retracement level, indicating potential short-term oversold conditions. A rebound above $26.54 could target $26.68, but a sustained break below $26.34 would confirm a bearish breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would be to enter long on a bullish engulfing pattern above the 50-period SMA, with a stop below the 20-period SMA and a target at the 38.2% retracement level. Alternatively, a short entry could be triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern below the 50-period SMA, with a stop above the 20-period SMA and a target at the 61.8% retracement. This strategy would aim to capture short-term momentum reversals with risk-controlled entry and exit points. Given today's price action, the bearish engulfing pattern in the final candle aligns with this strategy’s short entry criteria.