Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

• Price opened at $28.27 and closed at $28.03 on 24-hour timeframe.
• Strong bearish pressure observed with volume peaking near $28.50 before retracing.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:00–09:00 ET window.
• RSI reached overbought levels twice, failing to confirm strong bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands show price retesting the lower band, suggesting possible support at $27.90.

24-Hour Summary

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $28.27 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $28.03 at 12:00 ET the next day. The pair reached a high of $28.88 and a low of $27.92. Total volume was approximately 10,654.19, with notional turnover around $300,000.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours shows a clear bearish bias, with key resistance forming around $28.30–$28.50 and support near $28.00–$27.92. A notable bearish engulfing pattern developed around 20:00 ET, followed by a large bearish candle at $28.53. Multiple doji occurred between $28.10–$28.20, indicating indecision. A strong bullish reversal candle emerged at $28.30 during the early morning, but it failed to hold above $28.50.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows price crossing below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages late in the session, confirming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at $28.30, intersecting the 200-period MA to the north, forming a potential bearish crossover. The 100-period MA is also trending downward, supporting the bearish narrative.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover in the 06:00–09:00 ET window. RSI reached overbought levels at $28.88 but failed to break above $28.50, signaling weak bullish momentum. A subsequent bearish divergence formed as RSI peaked around $28.88 and price failed to follow through, suggesting a loss of upward conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 06:00–09:00 ET window, with price reaching the upper band before falling sharply. The recent low of $27.92 retested the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential support. A contraction in the bands was noted just before the large bearish move, suggesting a buildup of momentum before the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 2,000 at $28.50 and $28.61, coinciding with sharp price retracements. Notional turnover increased in line with volume during these peaks, suggesting genuine conviction rather than wash trading. A divergence appeared late in the session as volume dipped despite continued bearish pressure, hinting at exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $28.88 to $27.92, the 38.2% retracement sits at $28.33 and the 61.8% at $28.18. Price has struggled to hold above $28.20, suggesting the 61.8% level as a potential short-term support. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger bearish move aligns with $28.30, where price has previously reversed.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 20-period moving average on a 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and a volume spike. A stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent swing high, with a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent bearish momentum and failed attempts to reclaim key resistance levels, this strategy appears to align with the prevailing trend and could be tested on historical FARMUSDT data to validate its robustness.