Market Overview: Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

Summary
• Price opened at $23.16, surged to $24.10, then retracted to $22.48 before closing at $23.46.
• Volatility spiked in early evening hours, followed by a consolidation phase overnight.
• Volume surged during the bullish breakout, then declined during the pullback.

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at $23.16 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, and by the following day at 12:00 ET, the pair had closed at $23.46. During that time, it touched a high of $24.10 and a low of $22.48, indicating a volatile 24-hour range. Total volume traded was 25,828.526, while notional turnover (open * volume) amounted to approximately $589,554. The price action displayed a clear intraday reversal following a sharp rally in the evening hours.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels were identified near $23.0 and $22.48, with resistance at $23.91 and $24.10. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at $23.22–$23.28, signaling a short-term reversal, followed by a hanging man candle at $23.55–$23.45, hinting at potential bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed in the evening, suggesting a temporary bullish bias. However, the 50-period SMA remained above the 20-period line, indicating the underlying trend remained neutral to slightly bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA was at $23.70, and the 200-period SMA at $22.90, placing the price in a neutral zone.

Momentum Indicators

The MACD showed a narrowing histogram around 20:00 ET, followed by a bullish crossover at 20:30 ET, coinciding with the price breakout. However, this was followed by a bearish crossover at 03:00 ET the next day as the price pulled back. The RSI remained within a typical range, oscillating between 35 and 60, suggesting no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This implies that while momentum shifted direction, it lacked the strength to generate a strong trend continuation.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The price spent much of the day near the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, indicating a volatile session. A contraction in band width was observed during midday (15:00–17:00 ET), followed by a sharp expansion as the price surged. This suggests a potential breakout was in the works, and while it occurred, it did not lead to a sustained move.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was particularly heavy during the bullish breakout at 20:00–21:00 ET, with notional turnover surging due to high prices. In contrast, the pullback overnight saw declining volume, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying pressure. A divergence between price and volume occurred during the consolidation phase, hinting at a potential exhaustion of the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the intraday move from $22.48 to $24.10, the price pulled back to the 61.8% level ($23.16), which held as support before bouncing. Overnight consolidation brought the price close to the 50% retracement level ($23.29), suggesting potential short-term equilibrium.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD Golden Cross strategy, tested on FARMUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13, produced mixed results. Over 56 events, the average 5-day return was +0.87%, 10-day return +2.35%, and 20-day return +1.38%. Win rates hovered near 50%, with no statistically significant edge over a benchmark. While the signal occasionally aligned with favorable price moves (as seen in the evening rally on 2025-11-12), it lacks consistent predictive power. Traders may consider combining the Golden Cross with additional filters—such as volume confirmation, RSI divergence, or trend alignment—to improve reliability.