Market Overview: Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price dipped from $21.70 to $20.31, with a 24-h low of $20.00 and volume spiking near the end.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed around $21.70, coinciding with a sharp pullback.
• Volatility expanded significantly late in the session, with Bollinger Band widening and RSI signaling oversold levels.
• Turnover rose sharply in the final 15-minute candle, suggesting accumulation or distribution activity.

The Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) pair opened at $21.64 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET, reached a high of $22.40, hit a low of $20.00, and closed at $20.31 by 12:00 ET the following day. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 13,422.39, with a notional turnover of approximately $275,754 (calculated as sum of price × volume per candlestick).

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed multiple bearish reversal patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern and a hanging man pattern near the $21.70–$21.90 resistance cluster. The price then broke below key support levels, including $21.60 and $21.50, with the final 15-minute candle confirming a sharp breakdown to $20.31. Notable support appears to have formed around $20.75–$20.90, where the price consolidated briefly before the final leg down.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish throughout, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages would likely be in a death cross configuration, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory in the final hours, suggesting a potential short-term rebound, though caution is warranted due to the lack of a clear bullish reversal pattern.

MACD showed a bearish divergence with price, as the histogram remained negative for most of the session, with a large negative bar on the final 15-minute candle. RSI readings fell to 26–28 in the last 30 minutes, indicating oversold conditions but not necessarily signaling a bottom. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late hours, with the price closing near the lower band, a sign of increased volatility and exhaustion in the bearish move. Volume surged in the final candle, suggesting possible distribution or accumulation, but further confirmation is needed to determine the direction.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the $20.00 low to the $22.40 high suggest key psychological levels at $21.23 (38.2%) and $20.75 (61.8%). The price found short-term support at $20.75–$20.90, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, before continuing lower. This suggests that the pair is still searching for a stable base below the $21.00 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the recent RSI-14 falling into oversold territory (< 30) and the price near the 61.8% Fibonacci support, a hypothetical backtest of an RSI-oversold reversal strategy could be informative. If we assume a long entry at the close of the candle where RSI first entered oversold territory and a stop-loss just below the $20.00 low, the strategy would likely have triggered an entry. However, the price continued to fall despite the RSI signal, suggesting caution with such a strategy in highly volatile or trending markets. An RSI-based reversal strategy might struggle in this context without additional price confirmation or filtering criteria (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, volume surges, or moving average crossovers).