Market Overview: Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-22)

• Price dropped from $28.21 to $25.95, a 8.36% decline over 24 hours.
• Momentum weakened with RSI dipping below 30 and negative MACD divergence.
• Volatility increased as price fell below lower Bollinger Band for most of the session.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Key support levels identified at $27.80, $27.40, and $26.94 for potential bounce or breakdown.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $28.06 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $28.21, and closed the previous 24-hour cycle at $27.80. Over the current 24-hour window, the pair fell to a low of $25.95 and closed at $25.95 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume for the period is 9,864.84 FARM, with a turnover of $264,133.75. The price action indicates a sharp, bearish trend, supported by increased volume during the selloff.

Structure and Key Levels

The price has formed multiple bearish patterns, including a dark cloud cover and a shooting star near $27.80, $27.40, and $26.94. These levels appear to act as strong support clusters. A doji near $27.80 at 21:45 ET suggests a potential short-term equilibrium, though the overall bearish bias remains intact. The 15-minute chart shows a descending triangle forming as price action consolidates below $26.94, with a breakdown appearing more likely than a reversal.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are both below the price, with a negative cross observed at the start of the session. This confirms a bearish bias. The daily chart reveals a similar trend, with the 50DMA and 200DMA forming a death cross. The RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal candlestick pattern, this could signal a continuation of the downtrend rather than a bounce. MACD remains bearish, with the histogram expanding negatively, highlighting growing bear momentum.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased significantly over the last 12 hours, as seen by the widening of the Bollinger Bands. Price action has spent the majority of the period trading below the lower band, indicating overextended bearish conditions. The recent retest of the $26.94 level and subsequent breakdown suggests that volatility may continue to expand if the price continues to push lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on short-term entries based on the combination of RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart. A potential backtest hypothesis could involve entering a short position when RSI shows oversold divergence (price forming higher lows while RSI forms lower lows), and a bearish MACD crossover occurs below a key support level. A stop-loss would be placed above the most recent higher swing high, while a take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci extension level. Given the recent price action and confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, this setup appears valid for a continuation of the downtrend over the next 24 hours.