Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped 23.5% from a peak of $26.44 to $18.65 amid strong selling pressure.
• Volatility surged as price traded within a range of $18.58–$26.44.
• A large bearish candle on 2025-10-10 213000 signaled a sharp breakdown.
• RSI approached oversold territory but volume failed to confirm a potential bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, reflecting elevated volatility.

Overview

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $26.2 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $23.6 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The 24-hour trading window saw a high of $26.44, a low of $18.58, and a total volume of 25,828.05 with a turnover of $583,863. The price action was marked by a large bearish reversal candle on the 15-minute chart and a deep retracement below the 20-period moving average.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed a key resistance cluster between $26.0–$26.44 and a support area around $23.0–$23.5. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the peak, followed by a large bearish candle and a potential bullish harami near the 15-minute $23.01–$23.03 range. A bearish breakdown occurred after the price tested and broke below the 50-period moving average, confirming a shift in momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish control. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $25.5, while the 200-period SMA is at $23.0. The price is currently below the 50-period SMA but above the 200-period, suggesting a possible intermediate-term support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line mid-session, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. RSI dropped to 29.3, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a sustained bounce due to weak volume. A potential bounce could be confirmed if RSI crosses back above 30 with increasing volume and a close above the 20-period MA.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the price dropped below the 50-period moving average, reflecting heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band on the 15-minute chart but failed to close outside it. A sustained close above the upper band would indicate a reversal, while continued trading near the lower band may signal further bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown candle, reaching a peak of $922.56 at 213000 on 2025-10-10. The high volume coincided with a sharp decline in price, confirming the bearish move. However, subsequent volume failed to support further selling, suggesting potential exhaustion. Turnover confirmed the price action, with a large notional value moving during the breakdown and a smaller amount during the tentative rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were drawn from the swing high of $26.44 to the swing low of $18.65. The 38.2% retracement is at $23.68, the 50.0% at $22.55, and the 61.8% at $21.42. The current close at $23.6 is near the 38.2% level, suggesting a possible area of consolidation before the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying large bearish candles followed by a retest of the candle’s low and a break of the 20-period moving average. This aligns with the price action seen on 2025-10-10, where a massive bearish candle formed after a failed rally. The retest of the $18.65 low and the subsequent break below the 20-period moving average could serve as a sell signal. For the strategy to be validated, a clear break below the $21.42 Fibonacci level and a close below the 50-period moving average on the next session would be key confirmations.

Outlook & Risk

In the next 24 hours, FARMUSDT may test the $21.42–$23.50 range for support and consolidation. A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level could target $20.42, while a rebound above the 20-period MA may attract short-covering buyers. Investors should remain cautious as volume has not confirmed a strong reversal, and volatility remains elevated.