Market Overview: Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) — 2025-10-07

• FARMUSDT declined by ~8.5% over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows at 26.86.
• Price tested key support at 27.60–27.70 with bearish continuation patterns emerging.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought exhaustion, though bearish momentum remains strong.
• Volatility increased sharply post-noon ET, with volume spiking as price dropped.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the sharp decline, suggesting a break below key support.

Opening and Intraday Action

At 12:00 ET−1, FARMUSDT opened at 27.90 and reached a high of 27.98 before plunging to an intraday low of 26.90. The final 15-minute candle closed at 26.86, reflecting bearish pressure. Total volume over 24 hours amounted to 36,142.26 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $994,221 (based on average price). This marks a significant increase in trading activity, particularly as price moved lower after midday.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish continuation pattern after a failed rally from 27.60–27.80. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:00–21:00 ET, followed by a long lower shadow at 05:00 ET which hinted at a temporary pause. Key support levels include 27.60 and 27.30, with 27.50 acting as an intermediate rebound zone. A bullish reversal is unlikely unless price breaks back above 27.85, where a large bearish doji formed.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are in a steep bearish alignment, confirming downward momentum. The daily chart shows the 50DMA above the 100DMA but below the 200DMA, suggesting a bearish bias in the broader context. The RSI closed below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but divergence remains absent, suggesting the sell-off could continue. MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility contracted significantly between 00:00–08:00 ET, with price consolidating within a narrow range of ±0.05. This was followed by a sharp break below the lower band at 15:15 ET, signaling a breakdown in stability. Price has since remained below the lower band, with no signs of a rebound. The widening of the bands after 15:00 ET reflects growing uncertainty and distribution pressure.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume surged as price fell, especially between 15:15–16:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring at 15:15 ET (1422.318 units). This suggests strong distribution or panic selling. Notional turnover also increased in line with falling prices, reinforcing the bearish narrative. However, the volume profile lacks confirmation for a short-term reversal as price remains below 27.60.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

From the intraday high of 27.98 to the low of 26.86, the 38.2% Fib level at 27.46 and the 61.8% at 27.23 have become key watchpoints. A close above 27.46 could indicate a bounce, while a break below 27.23 may lead to a test of 26.80–26.90. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fib retracement from a recent rally stands at 26.65, a potential target for further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for FARMUSDT could involve entering a short position when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA (death cross) on the 15-minute chart and RSI confirms oversold conditions (<30). A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level (27.60–27.70), with a target at 27.30 and a second target at 27.00. This approach would align with the current bearish momentum, volatility expansion, and volume profile observed.