Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• Price declined 6.8% over 24 hours, closing at $27.41 after a sharp drop in early ET trading.
• Key support found around $27.50–$27.60; resistance persists at $28.13–$28.25 during intraday attempts to rally.
• Volatility expanded in the morning with a high-low range exceeding $1.20; volume surged in the first 6 hours.
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30), signaling potential for near-term bounce, though momentum remains bearish. • Bollinger Bands contracted in the early morning, followed by a sharp break to the downside, suggesting trend continuation.

FARMUSDT opened at $28.31 (12:00 ET–1) and traded between $27.41 and $28.70 over the 24-hour period, closing at $27.41 by 12:00 ET. Total volume was 20,642.01 FARM, with a notional turnover of $575,253.27. The pair exhibited bearish momentum, with a sharp sell-off occurring after 19:30 ET and a consolidation phase in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a clear bearish bias, with a key resistance cluster forming between $28.13 and $28.25, where multiple candles failed to close above. A strong support level emerged near $27.50 after several bounces and a failed rally attempt. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:00 ET and a hanging man pattern near $28.13, both indicating weak follow-through buying. The final candle closed near the lower Bollinger Band, confirming the bearish breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price consistently traded below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. The 50-EMA (15m) is at $28.28, while the 20-EMA is at $28.40, with price remaining below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-DMA is at $28.00 and the 200-DMA at $28.80, with price now deeply in oversold territory and below the 50-DMA, signaling a potentially extended bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session and remained negative, with a bearish divergence forming between price and the histogram. RSI dropped into the 20–30 oversold range by early afternoon and remained there, indicating potential for a short-term bounce but no reversal in sentiment. The slow stochastic also showed oversold conditions, but the RSI failed to close above 30, suggesting weak bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility increased significantly during the morning session, with a contraction in the Bollinger Band width at 03:00 ET followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke down. The move to the downside was confirmed when price closed near the lower band, with the midline at $28.08. This suggests the bearish trend may continue unless a strong rebound forms near $27.50.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the first 6 hours of the session, particularly between 17:00 and 20:00 ET, with large turnover during the $28.13–$27.80 breakdown. However, volume declined in the final 8 hours despite the lower close, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. The divergence between price action and volume in the final hours raises concerns about potential exhaustion or a trap setup.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent $28.31–$27.41 move, key levels to watch include 23.6% at $27.88 and 38.2% at $27.80, both of which saw price testing during the afternoon. The 61.8% level is at $27.66, which appears to be a critical floor. On a daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracements from the $28.70 high could act as key near-term resistance if the price attempts to rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in MACD and the RSI's oversold condition, a potential strategy involves a short entry near the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($27.80), with a stop above the 23.6% level ($27.88) and a target at the 61.8% retracement ($27.66). A trailing stop could be placed below each new swing low to lock in gains. This hypothesis aligns with the observed volume divergence and candlestick patterns suggesting bearish exhaustion in short-term buyers.