Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) – 2025-09-15

• Price dipped 4.3% from $28.82 to $27.53 over 24 hours.
• Volatility increased in the final 6 hours with a range expansion.
• Strong bearish momentum in RSI and MACD suggests pressure on the short side.
• Volume surged at key support levels, indicating possible reversal attempts.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting increased market uncertainty.

The FARMUSDT pair opened at $28.82 (12:00 ET – 1) and traded as high as $29.26 before closing at $27.53 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was approximately 15,187.16 units, with a notional turnover of $419,982.38.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish bias, with key resistance levels forming around $28.90–29.10 and support around $28.72 and $27.90. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around the $28.95–28.65 range late in the session, signaling increased selling pressure. A doji near $27.95 and a long lower wick at $27.53 suggest possible near-term support and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below price, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be pressing down, while the 200-period MA is a key level to watch for confirmation of a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI closed the 24-hour period at 30, indicating oversold conditions, but it failed to show a strong bounce, pointing to weak momentum. The MACD line was negative, with the signal line crossing below zero, suggesting a continuation of the bearish phase. A potential reversal may require a breakout above the 20-period MA and a confirming RSI rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the final 6 hours of the session, indicating rising volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $27.53, which may act as a temporary floor. A retest of this area with higher volume could trigger a bounce or a deeper breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged as price approached key support levels, particularly between $27.90 and $27.50. Notional turnover increased by nearly 50% in the final 6 hours, confirming the bearish bias. Divergence was observed between volume and price during the $28.90–29.10 range, suggesting weaker conviction on the bullish side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent $28.24–29.26 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at $28.52, and the 38.2% level is at $28.78. Price is now testing the 23.6% retracement level at $27.99 and may find a short-term bottom near this area. A close below $27.90 would validate a deeper correction into the next 38.2% level at $27.78.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using a backtesting strategy focused on MACD crossovers and RSI levels, one could look to enter short positions when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and RSI drops below 30, with a stop-loss placed above the most recent 15-minute high. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or 1.5x the recent ATR. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish divergence and oversold conditions, but caution is warranted due to the low volatility environment.