Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) - October 9, 2025

• Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) experienced a broad 24-hour range of ~0.00023 with bearish bias in late session.
• Key support tested around 0.00930–0.00940 after a sharp selloff post-0.00960.
• Volatility surged mid-day, but failed to sustain above 0.00960.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions multiple times, with no follow-through.
• Volume spiked during downlegs but turnover diverged, hinting at weak conviction.

At 12:00 ET on October 9, 2025, Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.00954 after closing at 0.00954 the previous day. Over the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.00985 and a low of 0.00892, closing at 0.00902. Total volume amounted to 103,595,953.59 units, with notional turnover estimated at approximately $934,958,545.60. The market displayed a clear bearish bias over the last 8 hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a series of descending triangles and bearish engulfing patterns, especially between 0.00960 and 0.00940. A long bearish candle formed around 14:00–14:15 ET, closing at 0.00906, and confirmed a short-term breakdown. Key support levels at 0.00930–0.00940 and 0.00920–0.00925 were tested repeatedly. A doji near 0.00906 suggested indecision, but no clear reversal signal was formed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA (0.00931) and 50-EMA (0.00942) were both bearish, with the pair trading below both for most of the day. The 200-day EMA (0.00954) acted as a resistance level earlier in the session. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA (0.00959) and 200-day EMA (0.00952) crossed in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line was negative for most of the session, with the histogram showing bearish momentum increasing after 04:00 ET. The RSI dropped below 40 in the afternoon, signaling oversold conditions temporarily, but failed to rebound meaningfully. RSI divergences during the sell-off indicated weak conviction, while a bearish crossover in the MACD confirmed the selloff around 04:00–06:00 ET.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 04:00 ET, pushing the pair outside the upper band briefly before a sharp reversion. From 08:00–14:00 ET, the price remained compressed within a narrow range around the 20-period moving average. By 14:15 ET, the price settled near the lower Bollinger band at 0.00906, suggesting a possible exhaustion of the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakout at 0.00960 and again at 0.00906, confirming the breakdowns. However, notional turnover diverged, showing weaker conviction. The largest volume spike occurred at 14:00–14:15 ET with 21,100,985.29 units traded but the turnover only rose marginally, indicating potentially low leverage or retail-driven selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the 0.00985 high to the 0.00906 low, the price reached the 61.8% retracement level at 0.00935. This level held for a short time but failed to offer strong support. On the 15-minute chart, retracements from 0.00960–0.00906 showed key levels at 0.00934 (38.2%) and 0.00919 (61.8%). The 38.2% level was a minor support, but the 61.8% level saw a temporary rejection.

Looking ahead, Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) appears to be consolidating near 0.00902, with key supports at 0.00920 and 0.00915 to watch. A close above 0.00935 could hint at a short-term bounce, but unless bullish volume and momentum indicators confirm, the bias remains bearish. Investors should remain cautious of further downside toward 0.00900–0.00905.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy, a long bias could be triggered on a close above the 20-EMA with RSI above 40 and volume above the 20-period average. Conversely, a short bias would be triggered on a close below the 50-EMA with RSI below 40 and volume expansion. Stop-loss placement could be set at the nearest Fibonacci level (e.g., 38.2% retracement), while take-profit would target the next 1–2 retracement levels or break of key support. The current price is near a 61.8% retracement and could serve as a testing ground for such a strategy.