Market Overview: Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) - October 6, 2025

• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of $0.01003 before recovering to close near $0.01024, showing a consolidating trend.
• Low RSI values suggested oversold conditions, but price failed to break above key resistance.
• Volatility remained compressed, with price oscillating between $0.01003 and $0.01048.
• Volume spiked during late-night buying but faded as the session progressed, showing weakening momentum.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in early morning trading, hinting at short-term bearish bias.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.01031 on October 5, 2025, and reached a high of $0.01048 before dropping to a low of $0.01003. The 24-hour session closed at $0.01024. Total volume was 219,364,240.4 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,260,000 (volume × average price). Price action showed tight consolidation amid moderate volatility.

Structure & Formations

ONEUSDT formed several bearish and bullish candlestick patterns over the 24-hour period, including a bearish engulfing pattern in the early hours of October 6, indicating short-term bearish sentiment. The price tested the $0.01025–0.01030 zone as a key resistance cluster, failing to sustain above it after two attempts. A notable bullish reversal emerged near the $0.01003 support, where price bounced off with a green candle forming a bullish hammer-like structure. No strong trend formation was evident, with price moving within a defined range between $0.01003 and $0.01048.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, reflecting a flat trend with no clear directional bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages were relatively aligned in a sideways formation, suggesting a continuation of a consolidation phase. Price remained below the 50-day moving average, indicating bearish pressure in the broader context.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in early morning trading and remained below the signal line for most of the session, reflecting ongoing bearish momentum. RSI hit an oversold level near 30 in the early hours of October 6, triggering a temporary rebound. However, the indicator failed to show significant bullish divergence, and the price failed to break above key resistance levels. RSI ended the day consolidating around 50, suggesting a lack of strong momentum in either direction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively compressed over the 24-hour period, with price staying within the Bollinger Bands but favoring the lower band in the early morning. A minor contraction in the bands occurred around 00:15 ET, followed by a brief expansion as price tested the $0.01003 support and bounced. This suggests the market was in a consolidation phase with potential for a breakout, though no sustained movement above or below the bands was observed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the overnight session, particularly between 02:45 and 03:45 ET, as price moved from $0.01011 to $0.01027. This was accompanied by a notable increase in notional turnover, confirming the buying pressure. However, as the session progressed into the early morning, volume started to taper off, indicating weakening momentum. Price action did not show any major divergences from volume, and the buying pressure was followed by a consolidation phase rather than a clear breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the $0.01003–0.01048 swing, key levels at 38.2% ($0.01025) and 61.8% ($0.01035) were tested multiple times over the 24-hour period. The 61.8% level acted as a strong resistance, with price failing to break above it despite several attempts. The 38.2% level provided temporary support in the afternoon, helping to stabilize price during a brief pullback. These levels suggest that ONEUSDT may continue to trade within a defined range unless there is a breakout above $0.01035 or a breakdown below $0.01025.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on breakout setups from tight consolidation phases, particularly when RSI enters oversold territory and volume increases. A potential entry would be triggered when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.01035, with a stop loss placed just below the 38.2% retracement at $0.01025. The expected target is $0.01048, the prior high. However, this strategy assumes a continuation of the recent bullish reversal and ignores potential bearish divergence in the MACD. Given the current consolidation, this strategy may work in the short term if the market shows a breakout rather than a breakdown.