Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) closed near its 24-hour high, showing strong bullish momentum after midday ET
• Price surged past key resistance levels with increasing volume and turnover confirmation
• Bollinger Bands widened, signaling rising volatility during the late-night rally
• RSI approached overbought territory but did not exceed it, suggesting potential consolidation
• Volume and turnover aligned with price movement, reinforcing bullish conviction

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.01024 on October 3, 2025 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of $0.0108, and closed at $0.01026 by 12:00 ET on October 4. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 199,048,000 ONE, with a notional turnover of approximately $2.04 million. The pair posted a modest rebound after a sharp selloff late on October 3.

Structure & Formations

ONEUSDT formed a bullish continuation pattern following a strong upward thrust from late October 3 into the early hours of October 4. A key support level was identified near $0.01013, where a strong bounce occurred at 17:15 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:30 ET, confirming a shift in momentum after earlier bearish indecision. A doji at 03:15 ET signaled potential consolidation after a sharp selloff.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in bullish alignment for most of the session, supporting the upward trend. Price spent much of the late session above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating elevated volatility. A contraction in the band width occurred briefly at 02:15 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price surged past $0.0108.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a positive divergence early on October 4, with momentum outpacing price. RSI climbed above 65 but failed to reach overbought territory, suggesting a potential pause rather than exhaustion. A bearish divergence appeared briefly around 05:30 ET, but it was quickly negated by renewed buying interest.

Volume and Turnover

Trading volume spiked sharply during the late-night rally, peaking at 19,748,098.3 ONE at 03:15 ET. Notional turnover mirrored this, with the highest turnover recorded at the same time. A divergence appeared between volume and price during the early-morning consolidation phase, hinting at cautious participation from larger players.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent swing low ($0.01013) to the swing high ($0.0108) showed price finding support near the 61.8% level ($0.01045), with a subsequent move up to the 127.2% extension before consolidating. This suggests that short-term buyers may be active at key Fibonacci levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve entering long positions upon a bullish engulfing pattern forming above a key Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed just below the 61.8% level. The MACD divergence and RSI levels can act as confirmation filters, reducing false signals. This approach would aim to capture upward momentum during high-volume periods, particularly when Bollinger Bands are expanding. The recent price action aligns with this setup, making it a viable candidate for historical backtesting.